Mortality trends and setbacks: global convergence or divergence?
Mortality trends and setbacks: global convergence or divergence?
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(04)15902-3
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发表时间：
2004-04-03
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Valkonen, T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McMichael, AJ;McKee, M;Valkonen, T
在过去世纪的大部分时间里，世界各地的卫生趋势总体上是积极的，值得注意。然而，在一些区域，预期寿命在过去一、二十年中有所下降。这一趋势表明，1960年代和1970年代出现的关于全世界人口健康状况改善和趋同的预期并没有得到一般确定性进程的保证。各国人口现在可以明确地分为预期寿命迅速增长的人口、增长较慢或可能趋于稳定的人口和趋势已经逆转的人口。在过去的两个世纪里，除了战争和饥荒时期，这种逆转是罕见的。对这些不同的人口健康趋势的探索更好地阐明了人口健康与经济、社会和技术变革进程之间的密切关系。这种分析表明，人口的健康状况应成为关于可持续发展的辩论的指导标准。
Health trends over much of the past century have been generally, and notably, positive throughout the world. In several regions, however, life expectancy has declined over the past 1-2 decades. This trend suggests that the expectation that emerged in the 1960s and 1970s of worldwide gains and convergence in population health status is not guaranteed by a general deterministic process. National populations can now be clearly grouped into those that have achieved rapid gains in life expectancy; those whose gains are slower or are perhaps plateauing; and those in which the trends have reversed. Over the past two centuries, outside times of war and famine, such reversals have been rare. Exploration of these varied population health trends elucidates better the close relation between population health and the processes of economic, social, and technological change. Such analysis has shown that the health status of human populations should be a guiding criterion in the debate on sustainable development.