A Policy Category Analysis Model for Tourism Promotion in China During the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Data Mining and Binary Regression.
A Policy Category Analysis Model for Tourism Promotion in China During the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Data Mining and Binary Regression.
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DOI：
10.2147/rmhp.s284564
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Li G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen T;Peng L;Yin X;Jing B;Yang J;Cong G;Li G
2019年底，COVID-19疫情对中国旅游业造成重大影响，短期内几乎处于停滞状态。在达到初步稳定状态后，政府和景区管理部门为加快旅游业复苏，实施了一系列激励政策。因此，分析政策实施后的各种社会效应，对政府和景区都具有指导意义。本文以新冠肺炎疫情期间旅游推广政策实施的社会效应为研究对象，简要分析了新冠肺炎疫情对全国文旅产业的影响，选取了几类具有代表性的旅游政策，抓取微博用户评论数据，分析用户对政策的感知和情感偏好，挖掘各类政策的社会效应。随后，通过识别各项政策的社会效应作为因变量，构建二元逻辑回归模型，得出旅游促进政策的最佳组合，促进文旅产业的快速振兴。结果表明，从单项政策来看，“安全”政策的社会效果最好。从组合政策来看，“安”策与“经”策同时发布，社会影响最大，可大幅加速文旅产业复苏。最后，提出了提高文化旅游产业科普危机事件能力的政策制定建议。这些结果解释了公众对政府政策的感知效果，可以用来判断政策是否已经发布到位。基于上述研究结果，本文提出了相应的政策建议：经济政策与安全政策相结合可以取得更好的效果;发挥“意见领袖”的作用可以提高政策的感知效果。
At the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 had a significant impact on China’s tourism industry, which was almost at a standstill in the short-term. After reaching the preliminarily stable state, the government and the scenic area management department implemented a series of incentive policies in order to speed up the recovery of the tourism industry. Therefore, analyzing all sorts of social effects after policy implementation is of guiding significance for the government and the scenic areas. Targeted as the social effect with the implementation of tourism promotion policy during the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper briefly analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the national cultural and tourism industry and selects several representative types of tourism policies, crawls the comment data of Weibo users, analyzes users’ perception and emotional preference to the policy, and thus mines the social effect of various policies. Subsequently, by identifying the social effects of various policies as dependent variables, a binary logistic regression model is constructed to obtain the best combination of tourism promotion policies and promote the rapid revitalization of the cultural and tourism industry. The results show that from the single policy, the social effect of the “safety” policy is the best. From the perspective of combination policies, the simultaneous release of “safety” policies and “economy” policies have the greatest social impact, which can dramatically accelerate the recovery of the cultural and tourism industry. Finally, this paper proposes suggestions for policy formulation to improve the ability of the cultural tourism industry to cope with crisis events. These results explain the perceived effects of the public on the government policies and can be used to judge whether the policies have been released in place. Based on the above results, corresponding suggestions are proposed as follows: 1) the combination of economic policies and security policies can achieve better results; and 2) the role of “opinion leaders” can be played to improve the perceived effect of policies.