The impact of climate change on sugarbeet yield in the UK: 1976-2004
The impact of climate change on sugarbeet yield in the UK: 1976-2004
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DOI：
10.1017/s0021859607006922
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发表时间：
2007-08-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Semenov, M. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jaggard, K. W.;Qi, A.;Semenov, M. A.
自20世纪70年代以来，每公顷交付的糖产量以年均0中心点111吨/公顷的速度增长，而正式品种试验中的糖产量以年均0中心点204吨/公顷的速度增长。这些增长通常被认为是品种和甜菜农艺学改进的结果。本文件认为，最近的气候变化对英国糖产量的可能影响，通过使用Broom的谷仓作物生长模型和每天收集的天气数据在过去30年。自1976年以来，在英格兰东部利用天气模拟糖产量的平均年增长率为0中心点139吨/公顷，约占官方品种试验增长率的三分之二。这种增加并不是天气记录准确性的人为因素，而是部分原因是由于播种时间提前。尽管统计上不显着，但提前播种趋势与每年0中心点025吨/公顷的增加有关，并且是气候变化的间接影响。30年来，与这些趋势的年度偏差并没有明显变大或变小的趋势。该模型不是针对品种的，因此它没有考虑到过去30年的品种改良。显然，品种已经得到了改进，因此这必然意味着农学上的一些变化往往会显著降低产量。最有可能造成这种情况的是农业耕作方式的变化，即作物加工活动的扩大，导致收获后储藏损失增加，灌溉面积减少。
Since the 1970s, the delivered sugar yield per hectare has risen at an average annual rate of 0 center dot 111 t/ha, while the sugar yield in the official variety trials has increased at an average annual rate of 0 center dot 204 t/ha. These increases are usually considered to be the result of improvements in varieties and in beet agronomy. The present paper considers the possible impact of recent changes in climate on UK sugar yields by using the Broom's Barn Crop Growth Model and daily weather data collected over the last 30 years. Simulations of sugar yield using weather in eastern England since 1976 increased by an average annual rate of 0 center dot 139 t/ha, which accounted for about two thirds of the rate in the official variety trials. This increase was not an artefact of the accuracy of weather recording but it was, in part, accounted for by the trend to earlier sowing. Although it was not statistically significant, the earlier sowing trend was associated with an increase of 0 center dot 025 t/ha per year and was an indirect effect of the climate change. The annual deviations from these trends have not tended to become significantly bigger or smaller over the three decades. The model is not variety-specific, so it makes no allowance for variety improvements during the last 30 years. Clearly, varieties have improved so the implication must be that some of the changes in agronomy have tended to decrease the yields significantly. The changes in agronomic practice most likely to be responsible are the extension of the crop processing campaign, leading to greater post-harvest storage losses, and a decrease in the irrigated area..