Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change
Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.013
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Roche, Nicolas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dawson, Richard J.;Ball, Tom;Roche, Nicolas
风险分析和结构性洪水风险管理措施（如防洪措施）的效益评估已经建立。在这里，一种方法来量化，在延长的时间尺度，非结构性措施，如土地利用空间规划，保险和防洪建设的有效性。综合方法将社会经济和气候变化情景与长期土地利用建模和洪水风险分析相结合，以生成预计年度损失的地图和时间序列。该分析已被应用在英国泰晤士河口的案例研究。利益相关者帮助制定了一些可能导致英国现有规划和保险政策发生重大变化的情景。对这些变化的有效性进行了分析，并显示了在减少未来洪水风险方面的巨大好处，这些好处可以通过改变规划政策、财政激励措施和在洪泛区建设弹性房地产来实现。此外，奖励可以通过早期的行动来增加。随后，一系列的政策的好处下，英国Focal的社会经济情景进行了探讨。不同的结构性和非结构性洪水管理措施进行了测试，结果表明，尽管在泰晤士河口的洪水风险大幅增加的潜力，在所有情况下，大量的洪水风险降低是可能的。然而，非结构性措施的有效性对社会经济变化和治理安排很敏感。这里所描述的分析将有助于识别对不确定性具有鲁棒性的非结构性和结构性选项的投资组合。(C)2011爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Risk analysis and appraisal of the benefits of structural flood risk management measures such as embankments is well established. Here, a method to quantify, over extended timescales, the effectiveness of non-structural measures such as land use spatial planning, insurance and flood resilient construction is presented. The integrated approach couples socio-economic and climate change scenarios with long term land use modelling and flood risk analysis to generate maps and time series of expected annual damages. The analysis has been applied on a case study in the Thames Estuary in the UK. Stakeholders helped develop a number of scenarios that might lead to substantial changes in existing planning and insurance policies in the UK. The effectiveness of these changes was analysed and showed the substantial benefits in terms of reduction of future flood risks that are achievable with changes in planning policy, financial incentives and resilient property construction in the floodplain. Moreover, the reward can be increased through earlier action. Subsequently, the benefits of a range of policies are explored under the UK Foresight socio-economic scenarios. Different structural and non structural flood management interventions are tested and the results demonstrate that despite the potential for large increases in flood risk in the Thames Estuary, in all scenarios substantial flood risk reductions are possible. The effectiveness of non-structural measures is however sensitive to socio-economic changes and governance arrangements. The analysis described here will help to identify portfolios of nonstructural and structural options that are robust to uncertainties. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.