Air pollution and mortality: Estimating regional and national dose-response relationships
Air pollution and mortality: Estimating regional and national dose-response relationships
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DOI：
10.1198/016214502753479266
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发表时间：
2002-03-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Samet, JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dominici, F;Daniels, M;Samet, JM
我们分析了1987 - 1994年美国88个美国最大城市的空气污染和死亡率的国家数据库，以估算与空气中颗粒物相关的死亡率相对小于10微米（PM，）的死亡率和关系的形式。在PM10浓度和死亡率之间。为了估计与PM相关的城市特异性死亡率相对率，我们建立了对数线性模型，其中包括对天气变量的非参数调整和长期趋势。为了估算PM，死亡率剂量响应曲线，我们使用具有未知数和打结位置的天然立方花键对每日死亡率的预期值的对数为PM10的函数。我们还开发了空间模型，以研究相对死亡率的异质性以及跨城市和地理区域的PM10死亡率剂量反应曲线的形状的异质性。为了确定有效估计的可变性是否可以通过城市特异性因素来解释，我们探讨了相对死亡率对平均污染水平，人口统计学变量，污染数据的可靠性以及颗粒物的特定组成部分的依赖性。我们通过基于仿真的方法实施了估计，包括数据增强，以估算城市特异性协变量的缺失数据和可逆的跳跃马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（RJMCMC），以从层次样条模型中参数的后验分布中进行样本。我们发现，在大多数位置，前一天的PM与总死亡率呈正相关，而PM10的10 mug/m（3）增加了0.5％。在东北地区，这种影响最强，在东北地区，死亡率的增加是其他城市平均水平的两倍，总的来说，我们发现该国的汇集浓度 - 响应关系是线性的。
We analyzed a national data base of air pollution and mortality for the 88 largest U.S. cities for the period 1987-1994, to estimate relative rates of mortality associated with airborne particulate matter smaller than 10 microns (PM,,) and the form of the relationship between PM10 concentration and mortality. To estimate city-specific relative rates of mortality associated with PM,,, we built log-linear models that included nonparametric adjustments for weather variables and longer term trends. To estimate PM, mortality dose-response curves, we modeled the logarithm of the expected value of daily mortality as a function of PM10 using natural cubic splines with unknown numbers and locations of knots. we also developed spatial models to investigate the heterogeneity of relative mortality rates and of the shapes of PM10 mortality dose-response curves across cities and geographical regions. To determine whether variability in effect estimates can be explained by city-specific factors, we explored the dependence of relative mortality rates on mean pollution levels, demographic variables, reliability of the pollution data, and specific constituents of particulate matter. We implemented estimation with simulation-based methods, including data augmentation to impute the missing data of the city-specific covariates and the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters in the hierarchical spline model. We found that previous-day PM,, concentrations were positively associated with total mortality in most the locations, with a .5% increment for a 10 mug/m(3) increase in PM10. The effect was strongest in the Northeast region, where the increase in the death rate was twice as high as the average for the other cities, Overall, we found that the pooled concentration-response relationship for the nation was linear.