Volcanic eruptions, successive poor harvests and social resilience over southwest China during the 18-19th century
Volcanic eruptions, successive poor harvests and social resilience over southwest China during the 18-19th century
复制标题
18-19世纪中国西南地区的火山爆发、连年歉收与社会复原力
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abb159
复制
发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Ge, Quansheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hao, Zhixin;Xiong, Danyang;Ge, Quansheng
火山爆发、气候变化及其对农作物收成和社会发展的影响日益受到科学界的关注。利用中国西南地区1730 ~ 1910年的农作物收成数据集，重建了气候代用指标，并结合南纬10 ~ 15度火山爆发年表，分析了农作物收成、气候变化和火山爆发之间的可能关系。此外，还利用从编年史中摘录的一些与作物和社会发展有关的政策和措施档案，分析了面临歉收时的社会复原力。结果表明，1730年至1810年间，当低纬度大型火山喷发较少时，研究地区的农作物收成总体呈波动增长。然而，从1811年到1910年，低纬度地区的火山喷发更加频繁，这导致了同时发生的低温和干旱。与此同时，在随后的19世纪10年代、19世纪50年代、19世纪70年代和19世纪90年代，农作物收成呈阶梯式下降。尽管如此，当地的社会制度在面对这种气候和农业灾害时确实具有弹性，即当地社会保持稳定，直到1911年没有发生重大饥荒，大规模移民或社会动荡。地方社会系统之所以具有较强的抗灾能力，主要得益于各种救灾措施，如修建粮仓、减免地方赋税、分配移民耕地以及中央政府主导粮食收购和分配等。
Volcanic eruptions, climate changes and their influences on crop harvests and social development are of increasing concern in science communities. Using a dataset of crop harvest scores of southwest China from 1730 to 1910, which was derived from the memorials to the emperors in the Qing Dynasty of China, reconstructed climate proxies and the chronology of large volcanic eruptions occurring between 10 degrees S and 15 degrees N, we analysed possible relationships between crop harvests, climate changes and volcanic eruptions. In addition, some archives of policies and measures related to crops and social development extracted from the chronicles were used to analyse social resilience when faced with poor harvests. The results show that crop harvests in the study area generally increased with fluctuations when there were less low-latitude large volcanic eruptions from 1730 to 1810. However, from 1811 to 1910, volcanoes at low latitudes erupted more frequently, which contributed to concurrent low temperature and drought. Meanwhile, the crop harvests showed a step-down decrease during the following periods of 1810s, 1850s, 1870s and 1890s. Though, the local social system was certainly resilient in facing of such climate and agriculture disasters,i.e.the local society remained stable without significant famine, large-scale migration or social unrest until 1911. The strong resilience of local social systems owed largely to various relieving measures, such as, building barns, exempting or reducing local taxes, allocating farmland to immigrants, and central government dominated grain purchasing and distribution to alleviate disasters.