Widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under climate change
Widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-021-03943-z
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发表时间：
2021-11-18
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Thompson, David W. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Jingyuan;Thompson, David W. J.
气候变化一直并将持续伴随着地表温度的广泛变化。显然，这些变化包括全球平均地表温度的上升，以及在更大程度上依赖于区域的温度变率变化（1 - 3）。但尚不清楚这些变化是否还包括地表温度持续性的改变。这一点很重要，因为天气事件对生态系统和社会的影响在很大程度上取决于事件持续的时长。在此，我们依据在四种不同地球系统模型上运行的150次模拟结果，以及在具有不同辐射过程和大尺度动力学表征的简化模型上运行的模拟结果，对21世纪地表温度持续性对气候变化的响应进行了广泛研究。综合来看，结果表明，气候变化模拟的显著特征是地表温度持续性的广泛变化，这种变化通常在海洋区域最为显著，且似乎是由多种物理过程共同作用产生的。这些发现既表明了气候变化下持续性广泛变化的稳健性，也凸显了更好地理解、模拟和限制此类变化的迫切需求。一项对不同模型的气候变化模拟研究表明，全球变暖下地表温度持续性发生广泛变化，这可能归因于多种物理过程。
Climate change has been and will be accompanied by widespread changes in surface temperature. It is clear that these changes include global-wide increases in mean surface temperature and changes in temperature variance that are more regionally-dependent(1-3). It is less clear whether they also include changes in the persistence of surface temperature. This is important as the effects of weather events on ecosystems and society depend critically on the length of the event. Here we provide an extensive survey of the response of surface temperature persistence to climate change over the twenty-first century from the output of 150 simulations run on four different Earth system models, and from simulations run on simplified models with varying representations of radiative processes and large-scale dynamics. Together, the results indicate that climate change simulations are marked by widespread changes in surface temperature persistence that are generally most robust over ocean areas and arise due to a seemingly broad range of physical processes. The findings point to both the robustness of widespread changes in persistence under climate change, and the critical need to better understand, simulate and constrain such changes.A survey of climate change simulations from different models indicates widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under global warming that may be attributable to a broad range of physical processes.