The effectiveness of various rabies spatial vaccination patterns in a simulated host population with clumped distribution
The effectiveness of various rabies spatial vaccination patterns in a simulated host population with clumped distribution
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DOI：
10.1016/s0304-3800(02)00003-0
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发表时间：
2002-07-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Saltz, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bohrer, G;Shem-Tov, S;Saltz, D
在以色列内盖夫沙漠，尽管该地区狂犬病主要宿主物种密度较低，但狂犬病疫情每 5-7 年爆发一次。这片沙漠中的犬科动物在太空中分布不均匀，与人类相关的废物场内和周围的犬科动物密度较高，而该地区其他地区的犬科动物密度较低（大概低于疾病阈值）。该疾病在内盖夫沙漠中的持续存在可能是由于人类排泄物周围的高寄主密度斑块造成的。我们使用基于个体的空间显式模型来测试口服狂犬病疫苗的非均匀分布是否比常用的均匀分布更能有效地根除这种疾病。我们基于 20 x 20 网格评估了两个模型：第一个模型有 17 个高密度斑块均匀分布在网格上，第二个模型有 16 个高密度斑块聚集在四组，每组四个。我们测试了在四种不同宿主传播范围下传播口服疫苗的六种模式。仅对高密度斑块进行免疫在所有情况下都是无效的。平均而言，仅对低宿主密度斑块进行免疫即可在 5 年内根除该疾病。仅对高密度斑块周围的区域进行免疫是无效的，除非高密度斑块不聚集并且宿主的分散距离较短。我们得出结论，在沙漠环境中。当宿主密度随空间变化时，口服狂犬病疫苗的不均匀传播在某些情况下可能比常用的均匀传播更有效。然而，这需要充分了解宿主的扩散模式及其在空间上的分布。 (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. 保留所有权利。
In Israel's Negev Desert, periodic episodes of rabies epidemics erupt every 5-7 years despite low densities of the main reservoir species of rabies in this area. Canids in this desert are spread non-uniformly over space, with high densities in and around human related waste sites and low densities (presumably below the disease threshold) in the rest of the region. The persistence of the disease in the Negev desert is due likely to the high host density patches around human waste sites. We used an individual-based spatially explicit model to test whether a non-uniform spread of oral rabies vaccination could be more effective in eradicating the disease than the commonly used uniform distribution. We evaluated two models based on a 20 x 20 grid: the first with 17 high-density patches distributed evenly over the grid and the second with 16 high-density patches clumped in four groups of four. We tested six patterns of spreading the oral vaccination under four different host dispersal ranges. Immunizing only the high-density patches was ineffective in all cases. Immunizing only low host-density patches eradicated the disease within 5 years, on average. Immunizing only the areas surrounding the high-density patches was ineffective except when high-density patches were not clumped and dispersal distance of the host was short. We conclude that in desert environments. where host densities vary over space, non-uniform spreading of oral rabies vaccination may, under certain circumstances, be more effective than the commonly used uniform spread. However, this requires good knowledge of the host's dispersal patterns and its distribution over space. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.