Measuring time preferences: A comparison of experimental methods
Measuring time preferences: A comparison of experimental methods
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jebo.2015.05.018
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Sprenger, Charles
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andreoni, James;Kuhn, Michael A.;Sprenger, Charles
获取时间偏好已经成为实验室和现场实验的重要组成部分，但对于如何最好地衡量折扣，还没有达成共识。我们考察了最近两个简单、易于管理且个别成功的启发工具的预测有效性：凸时间预算(CTB)和双重多重价目表(DMPL)。使用类似的方法，使用样本内预测和样本外预测对CTB和DMPL进行了比较。虽然两者在样本内的表现一样好，但CTB在样本外指标上的表现明显优于DMPL。(C)2015爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Eliciting time preferences has become an important component of both laboratory and field experiments, yet there is no consensus as how to best measure discounting. We examine the predictive validity of two recent, simple, easily administered, and individually successful elicitation tools: convex time budgets (CTB) and double multiple price lists (DMPL). Using similar methods, the CTB and DMPL are compared using within: and out-of-sample predictions. While each perform equally well within sample, the CTB significantly outperforms the DMPL on out-of-sample measures. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.