Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300
Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000738
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Hinkel, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brown, S.;Nicholls, R. J.;Hinkel, J.
我们使用了多种综合的减缓海平面情景，以及来自变暖酸化和海平面投影仪模型的非减缓海平面情景。我们发现海平面上升（SLR）在2100年后继续加速，除了最积极的缓解情景，即1.5摄氏度和2.0摄氏度。使用动态交互脆弱性评估模型框架，我们预测了在SLR和人口变化下，100年1次的沿海冲滩的土地和人口暴露。2000年，洪泛区面积估计为540 × 10公里(2)。到2100年，在减缓情景下，其范围在610 × 10(3)和640 × 10(3) km(2)之间(第5和第95百分位数为580 × 10(3)和700 × 10（3) km(2)）。因此，到2100年，减缓情景之间的差异很小。然而，在2300年，预估洪泛平原在2300年(缓解情景下为610 × 10(3)和1290 × 10（3)公里(2)）将增加到700 × 10(3)和960 × 10(3)公里(2)之间，而在非缓解情景下为1630 × 10(3)公里(2)(1190 × 10(3)和2220 × 10（3)公里(2)）。在积极缓解和非缓解情景下，预计2300年全球暴露于SLR的人口比例将分别在1.5%至5.4%（假设2100年后人口不再增长）之间（1.2%至7.6%）。因此，在百年时间尺度上，对减缓气候变化和稳定温度有显著的好处。然而，海平面将继续上升，尽管上升速度较慢。因此，潜在的影响将不断增加，需要适应现有的沿海基础设施，并仔细规划新的沿海发展。如果我们减少温室气体排放并稳定全球气温，海平面上升（SLR）将在几个世纪内继续以较低的速度上升。这是因为导致单反的海洋和冰冻圈（冰）的变化需要很长的时间尺度才能对全球变暖的变化做出反应。早期和积极的减缓气候变化将最有效地减少洪水风险，特别是在21世纪之后。即使气候变化有所缓解，几个世纪以来，沿海洪灾的土地面积仍将继续增加。调整海岸以应对海平面上升是不可避免的。需要考虑对沿海居民的长期影响。
We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea-level scenarios, together with a non-mitigation sea-level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector model. We find sea-level rise (SLR) continues to accelerate post-2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modeling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100year coastal flood plain under SLR and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 x 10(3) km(2). By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 x 10(3) and 640 x 10(3) km(2) (580 x 10(3) and 700 x 10(3) km(2) for the 5th and 95th percentiles). Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 x 10(3) and 960 x 10(3) km(2) in 2300 (610 x 10(3) and 1290 x 10(3) km(2)) for the mitigation scenarios, but 1630 x 10(3) km(2) (1190 x 10(3) and 2220 x 10(3) km(2)) for the non-mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to SLR in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% (1.2%-7.6%) (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non-mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea-levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.Plain Language Summary If we reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize global temperatures, sea-level rise (SLR) will continue at a reduced rate for centuries. This is because changes to the ocean and cryosphere (ice) which contribute to SLR take very long timescales to respond to changes in global warming. Early and aggressive climate change mitigation will be most effective to reduce flood risk, particularly after the 21st century. Even with climate change mitigation, the land area exposed to coastal flooding will continue to increase for centuries. Adapting the coast to cope with rising sea levels is inevitably required. The long-term implications for coastal habitation need to be considered.