Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055
Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055
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DOI：
10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104947
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Holz, Franziska
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ansari, Dawud;Holz, Franziska
气候相关资产搁浅是指由于气候政策收紧等不可预见的变化而导致的资产贬值，如资源储备、基础设施或工业。虽然发展中国家，特别是化石燃料出口国，对这一问题最为关注，但其发展（经济学）方面的分析还很有限。本研究以中东、中国和拉丁美洲三个地区为研究对象，通过对资源领域的相关性进行调查，旨在加深对搁浅资产的理解。为此，我们分析了四个跨学科的全球能源情景的区域层面。具体来说，我们提取的结果从一个数值能源模型（能源生产，能源消费，发电）的三个地区，并引入一个新的指数搁浅资产。该指数确定了每个地区最容易出现资产搁浅的化石燃料行业，应该得到国家和国际政策制定者的最大关注。我们发现，中国煤炭行业以及中东和拉丁美洲原油行业存在相当大的不确定性。最后，我们通过讨论与资源丰富的经济体的搁浅资产密切相关的方面，如全球能源和气候政策的不确定性，资源诅咒和多样化，经济弹性，以及工业化经济体和后来者之间气候政策努力的不平等负担分担，来透视我们的结果。我们的结论是，中国比拉丁美洲更有可能进行绿色转型，更不用说中东了。(C)2020作者（S）爱思唯尔有限公司出版
Climate-related asset stranding refers to the depreciation of assets - such as resource reserves, infrastructure, or industries - resulting from the unanticipated changes, such as the tightening of climate policies. Although developing countries - especially fossil-fuel exporters - may be most concerned by this issue, its analysis in development (economics) has so far been limited.We aim at enhancing the understanding of stranded assets by investigating its relevance in the resource sectors of three case study regions -the Middle East, China, and Latin America. For this, we analyse the regional dimensions of four interdisciplinary global energy scenarios. Specifically, we extract results from a numerical energy model (energy production, energy consumption, electricity generation) for the three regions and introduce a novel index for stranded assets. The index identifies which fossil fuel sector in each region is most prone to asset stranding and should receive the most attention from national and international policymakers.We find that considerable uncertainty exists for the Chinese coal sector as well as the Middle Eastern and Latin American crude oil sectors. We finally put our results into perspective by discussing aspects that are closely related to stranded assets for resource-rich economies such as the uncertainty in global energy and climate policy, the resource curse and diversification, economic resilience, and unequal burden-sharing of climate policy efforts between industrialised economies and latecomers. We conclude that China is more likely to engage in a green transformation than the Latin Americas or, still less, the Middle East. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.