Discriminating Contagion: An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
Discriminating Contagion: An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
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歧视性传染：新兴市场传染性货币危机的另一种解释
DOI：
10.5089/9781451843118.001
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Pavan Ahluwalia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pavan Ahluwalia
本文表明，一个国家对传染性危机的脆弱性取决于该国与其他正在经历危机的国家之间的明显相似性。如果一个国家与受传染性危机影响的其他国家（特别是引发传染性危机的国家）在相同的经济变量中表现出弱点，或者位于同一地区，那么这个国家很容易受到投资者情绪变化的影响。本文采用了19个新兴市场的样本，以及墨西哥、亚洲和俄罗斯危机的数据，在控制了其他传染渠道（如贸易溢出效应和金融联系）后，为这种歧视性传染提供了证据。
This paper shows that a country's vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment if it exhibits weaknesses in the same economic variables as other countries affected by a contagious crisis (particularly the country that started the contagious wave), or if it is located in the same region. The paper uses a sample of 19 emerging markets, and data from the Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises to provide evidence of this discriminating contagion, after controlling for alternative channels of contagion such as trade spillovers and financial linkages.