Surveying business uncertainty
Surveying business uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.03.021
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发表时间：
2022-09-07
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Parker, Nicholas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Altig, David;Barrero, Jose Maria;Parker, Nicholas
我们从企业高管那里得出了他们自己公司在一年的展望期内的结果的主观概率分布。在问题设计方面，我们的关键创新在于让受访者自由选择未来销售增长、就业和投资的五点分布中的支持点和概率。在数据收集方面，我们开发并开展了新的每月业务不确定性小组调查。 SBU 于 2014 年启动，目前涵盖来自全美 50 个州的约 1,750 家公司、每个主要非农行业以及各种规模的公司。我们发现三个关键结果。首先，公司层面的增长预期高度预测已实现的增长率。其次，公司层面的主观不确定性预测了未来预测误差和未来预测修正的程度。第三，主观不确定性随着公司上一年的绝对增长率以及最近对其预期增长率的修正幅度而增加。我们汇总公司层面的预测分布，以构建美国私营部门的商业预期（第一时刻）和不确定性（第二时刻）的月度指数。 (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point distributions over future sales growth, employment, and investment. In terms of data collection, we develop and field a new monthly panel Survey of Business Uncertainty. The SBU began in 2014 and now covers about 1,750 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major nonfarm industry, and a range of firm sizes. We find three key results. First, firm-level growth expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates. Second, firm-level subjective uncertainty predicts the magnitudes of future forecast errors and future forecast revisions. Third, subjective uncertainty rises with the firm's absolute growth rate in the previous year and with the magnitude of recent revisions to its expected growth rate. We aggregate over firm-level forecast distributions to construct monthly indices of business expectations (first moment) and uncertainty (second moment) for the U.S. private sector. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.