Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9
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发表时间：
2019-02-07
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Edwards, Tamsin L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Golledge, Nicholas R.;Keller, Elizabeth D.;Edwards, Tamsin L.
政府目前的政策承诺，到2100年，地表温度将比工业化前的水平高出3至4摄氏度，这将导致冰盖融化加剧。在耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段中没有明确包括冰盖排放，因此目前在最常用于为政府政策提供信息的模拟中没有捕捉到这种融化对气候的影响。在这里，我们显示，使用模拟的格陵兰岛和南极冰盖的约束下，基于卫星的测量最近的变化，在冰质量，增加来自格陵兰岛的融水将导致大西洋翻转环流的大幅放缓，而来自南极洲的融水将捕获温暖的水低于海面，创造一个积极的反馈，增加南极冰的损失。在我们的模拟中，未来的冰盖融化会增加全球温度的变化，到2100年将使海平面上升25厘米。然而，在模拟未来冰动态变化的方式方面仍然存在不确定性，这突出表明需要继续进行观测和全面的多模型评估。
Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. Ice-sheet discharge was not explicitly included in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, so effects on climate from this melt are not currently captured in the simulations most commonly used to inform governmental policy. Here we show, using simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets constrained by satellite-based measurements of recent changes in ice mass, that increasing meltwater from Greenland will lead to substantial slowing of the Atlantic overturning circulation, and that meltwater from Antarctica will trap warm water below the sea surface, creating a positive feedback that increases Antarctic ice loss. In our simulations, future ice-sheet melt enhances global temperature variability and contributes up to 25 centimetres to sea level by 2100. However, uncertainties in the way in which future changes in ice dynamics are modelled remain, underlining the need for continued observations and comprehensive multi-model assessments.