Teleconnected food supply shocks
Teleconnected food supply shocks
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Creutzig, Felix
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
d'Amour, Christopher Bren;Wenz, Leonie;Creutzig, Felix
2008-2010年的粮食危机可能是气候引起的具有地缘政治影响的根本性粮食危机的先兆。俄罗斯热浪导致的产量损失和由此产生的出口限制导致整个中东地区小麦市场价格上涨，这可能是阿拉伯之春的原因之一。随着持续的气候变化，气温和温度变异性将上升，导致主要营养作物产量的不确定性增加。在这里，我们调查哪些国家最容易受到远程相关供应冲击的影响，即饮食严重依赖小麦、玉米或大米进口的国家，以及大部分人口生活在贫困中的国家。我们发现，中东对小麦供应冲击最敏感，中美洲对玉米供应冲击最敏感，西非对大米供应冲击最敏感。与贫困水平相比，撒哈拉以南非洲地区受到的影响最大。总体而言，小麦、大米和玉米出口同时减少10%，将使5500万贫困人口的卡路里摄入量减少约5%。主要产区的出口禁令将使多达2亿贫困线以下的人面临风险，其中90%生活在撒哈拉以南非洲地区。我们的结果表明，国家农业生产力的提高和贸易伙伴和饮食的多样化结合在一起，可以有效地降低未来的粮食安全风险。
The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.