Interpreting Century-Scale Changes in Southern North Sea Storm Surge Climate Derived from Coupled Model Simulations
Interpreting Century-Scale Changes in Southern North Sea Storm Surge Climate Derived from Coupled Model Simulations
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DOI：
10.1175/2010jcli3520.1
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Horsburgh, Kevin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Howard, Tom;Lowe, Jason;Horsburgh, Kevin
本文介绍了利用气候风暴潮模拟系统对英国海岸，特别是北海南部和英格兰东南部的泰晤士河口进行的数值试验。用区域气候模式的大气资料驱动的风暴潮模式模拟了北海南部的风暴潮时间序列，用全球气候模式的大气资料驱动的同一风暴潮模式模拟了风暴潮时间序列在此基础上，对泰晤士河口附近的极端涌浪进行了比较，发现其线性比例因子与全时间序列的线性比例因子相似。因此，作者认为，在利用这种模式安排寻求该位置涌浪的显著趋势时，如果使用观测值来为每个位置建立合适的比例因子，则可以避免区域模式缩减阶段。研究了潮涨相位关系的影响，并将区域模式驱动模拟的泰晤士河口极端海平面与1953年的极端事件进行了比较。尽管模拟的海平面略低，在此基础上，对时均海平面变化与涌浪变化线性叠加的假设进行了研究，发现时均海平面变化的主要影响是对潮汐和涌浪的传播速度的影响，这支持了简单线性叠加的假设。平均和极端海平面变化相加
This paper describes numerical experiments using a climate storm surge simulation system for the coast of the United Kingdom with a particular focus on the southern North Sea and the Thames estuary in southeastern EnglandTime series of surges simulated in the southern North Sea by a surge model driven by atmospheric data from a regional climate model and surges simulated by the same surge model driven by atmospheric data from a global climate model are compared A strong correspondence is demonstrated and a linear scaling factor relating them is derived This factor vanes slowly with location Around the Thames estuary extreme surges are compared in the same way and the linear scaling factor for the extremes is found to be similar to that for the full time series The authors therefore assert that in seeking significant trends in surge at this location using this model arrangement, the regional model downscaling stage could be avoided if observations were used to establish a suitable scaling factor for each locationThe influence of the tide surge phase relationship is investigated, and extreme sea levels at the mouth of the River Thames from regional model driven simulations are compared to the extreme event of 1953 Although the simulated levels are slightly lower, they are found to be comparable given the observational uncertaintyThe assumption that time mean sea level changes can be added linearly to surge changes is investigated at this location for large changes in time mean sea level The authors find that the primary effect of such an increase is on the speed of propagation of tide and surge supporting the case for a simple linear addition of mean and extreme sea level changes