QUANTIFYING CONFIDENCE
QUANTIFYING CONFIDENCE
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DOI：
10.3982/ecta13079
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Dellas, Harris
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Angeletos, George-Marios;Collard, Fabrice;Dellas, Harris
我们开发了一种易于处理的方法，用于利用高阶信念的自主变化来增强宏观经济模型。我们利用这一点来容纳某种类型的乐观和悲观浪潮，这种浪潮可以被解读为摩擦协调的产物，而且与新闻文献中描述的不同，我们关注的是短期经济前景，而不是中长期前景。我们表明，这种丰富提供了对数据显著特征的简约解释；它解释了允许各种竞争性结构性冲击的估计模型中的商业周期波动的很大一部分；它捕捉到了一种具有凯恩斯主义色彩但不依赖于名义刚性的波动。
We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous variation in higher-order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of optimism and pessimism that can be interpreted as the product of frictional coordination and, unlike the one featured in the news literature, regards the short-term economic outlook rather than the medium- to long-run prospects. We show that this enrichment provides a parsimonious explanation of salient features of the data; it accounts for a significant fraction of the business-cycle volatility in estimated models that allow for various competing structural shocks; and it captures a type of fluctuations that have a Keynesian flavor but do not rely on nominal rigidities.