The Impact of Future Offshore Wind Farms on Wind Power Generation in Great Britain
The Impact of Future Offshore Wind Farms on Wind Power Generation in Great Britain
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DOI：
10.3390/resources4010155
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发表时间：
2015-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Coker, Phil J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Drew, Daniel R.;Cannon, Dirk J.;Coker, Phil J.
在未来几年，英国风力发电场的地理分布预计将发生重大变化。随着“第三轮”风区的发展（约2025年），大部分装机容量将位于大型海上风电场。然而，风电场分布的这种变化对全国风力发电特性的影响在很大程度上是未知的。本研究使用34年的再分析数据集（美国国家航空航天局全球建模与同化办公室（NASA-GMAO）的现代研究与应用回顾分析（MERRA）），根据以下内容生成GB汇总风力发电的合成小时时间序列：（1）“当前”风电场分布;（2）“未来”风电场分布情景。推导出的数据用于估计极端风力发电事件在英国的每个风电场分布的气候。风电场分布的变化对风电统计的影响是显著的。年平均容量系数从目前风电场分布的32.7%增加到未来分布的39.7%。此外，有更少的延长低世代的时期和更多的延长高世代的时期。最后，频率和幅度
In the coming years the geographical distribution of wind farms in Great Britain is expected to change significantly. Following the development of the "round 3" wind zones ( circa 2025), most of the installed capacity will be located in large offshore wind farms. However, the impact of this change in wind-farm distribution on the characteristics of national wind generation is largely unknown. This study uses a 34-year reanalysis dataset (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) from National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA-GMAO)) to produce a synthetic hourly time series of GB-aggregated wind generation based on: (1) the "current" wind farm distribution; and (2) a "future" wind farm distribution scenario. The derived data are used to estimate a climatology of extreme wind power events in Great Britain for each wind farm distribution. The impact of the changing wind farm distribution on the wind-power statistics is significant. The annual mean capacity factor increased from 32.7% for the current wind farm distribution to 39.7% for the future distribution. In addition, there are fewer periods of prolonged low generation and more periods of prolonged high generation. Finally, the frequency and magnitude