The global distribution of clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria.
The global distribution of clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria.
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绘制疟疾全球分布地图的动机是需要确定面临风险的人口，以便进行适当的资源分配，并为评估其全球经济影响提供一个强有力的框架。对旧的和最近的疟疾地图的比较表明，这种疾病在地理上是如何受到限制的，但它仍然根深蒂固地存在于世界上气候适宜传播的贫困地区。在这里，我们提供了一种经验方法，通过使用流行病学，地理和人口数据的组合来估计全球由恶性疟原虫引起的临床事件的数量。我们估计2002年有5.15亿例（范围3 - 6.6亿）临床恶性疟原虫疟疾发作。这些全球估计数比世界卫生组织（世卫组织）报告的数字高出50%，非洲以外地区的估计数高出200%，反映出世卫组织对这些国家的被动国家报告的依赖。没有对疟疾风险地图的知情了解，恶性疟原虫引起的临床疾病的全球范围将继续被低估。
Interest in mapping the global distribution of malaria is motivated by a need to define populations at risk for appropriate resource allocation and to provide a robust framework for evaluating its global economic impact. Comparison of older and more recent malaria maps shows how the disease has been geographically restricted, but it remains entrenched in poor areas of the world with climates suitable for transmission. Here we provide an empirical approach to estimating the number of clinical events caused by Plasmodium falciparum worldwide, by using a combination of epidemiological, geographical and demographic data. We estimate that there were 515 (range 300–660) million episodes of clinical P. falciparum malaria in 2002. These global estimates are up to 50% higher than those reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 200% higher for areas outside Africa, reflecting the WHO’s reliance upon passive national reporting for these countries. Without an informed understanding of the cartography of malaria risk, the global extent of clinical disease caused by P. falciparum will continue to be underestimated.