EVALUATING CLIMATE MODELS WITH AN AFRICAN LENS
EVALUATING CLIMATE MODELS WITH AN AFRICAN LENS
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-16-0090.1
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Senior, Cath
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
James, Rachel;Washington, Richard;Senior, Cath
气候模式正变得越来越复杂，并越来越依赖于为气候变化适应提供信息。然而，在包括非洲在内的许多最需要信息的地区，模式开发的进展落后。为非洲开发有针对性的模式至关重要，有针对性的模式评估也至关重要。对特定区域模型性能的评估通常采用“验证”方法，侧重于平均偏差，但如果要改进模型，重要的是要了解它们如何模拟区域气候动力学：从验证转向基于过程的评估。这种评估可能因地区而异，需要当地的天气和气候专业知识：“一刀切”的方法可能会忽略重要的、地区特有的现象。那么在非洲地区哪些是重要的进程呢？如何对他们进行评估？本文利用来自中非、东非、南部和西非的一组科学家的专业知识解决了这些问题。对于每个区域，回顾了目前对气候模式的认识，并提供了一个有针对性的评估示例，包括对潮湿环流、遥相关和变率模态的分析。还考虑了泛非洲的观点，以审查区域之间运作的进程。该分析基于英国气象局统一模型，但它使用的诊断方法可能适用于其他模型。这些例子旨在促使气候建模者和非洲科学家进一步讨论如何最好地从非洲的角度评估模型，并促进非洲模型评估中心的发展，以快速了解这个重要大陆的模型行为。
Climate models are becoming evermore complex and increasingly relied upon to inform climate change adaptation. Yet progress in model development is lagging behind in many of the regions that need the information most, including in Africa. Targeted model development for Africa is crucial and so too is targeted model evaluation. Assessment of model performance in specific regions often follows a “validation” approach, focusing on mean biases, but if models are to be improved, it is important to understand how they simulate regional climate dynamics: to move from validation to process-based evaluation. This evaluation may be different for every region and requires local weather and climate expertise: a “one size fits all” approach could overlook important, region-specific phenomena. So which are the important processes in African regions? And how might they be evaluated? This paper addresses these questions, drawing on the expertise of a team of scientists from Central, East, southern, and West Africa. For each region, the current understanding of climate models is reviewed, and an example of targeted evaluation is provided, including analysis of moist circulations, teleconnections, and modes of variability. A pan-African perspective is also considered, to examine processes operating between regions. The analysis is based on the Met Office Unified Model, but it uses diagnostics that might be applied to other models. These examples are intended to prompt further discussion among climate modelers and African scientists about how to best evaluate models with an African lens, and promote the development of a model evaluation hub for Africa, to fast track understanding of model behavior for this important continent.