The effect of climate on adult survival in five species of North Atlantic seabirds
The effect of climate on adult survival in five species of North Atlantic seabirds
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2656.2005.00981.x
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发表时间：
2005-09
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
H. Sandvik;K. Erikstad;R. Barrett;N. Yoccoz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Sandvik;K. Erikstad;R. Barrett;N. Yoccoz
摘要1在长寿物种中，成虫存活是一个重要的生活史特征。因此，需要更好地了解非灾难性气候变化对长寿海鸟成年生存的影响。然而，对这种影响的记录仍然很少。2利用捕获标记重现数据，我们模拟了五种海鸟的年存活率，它们是普通海鸟(Uria Aalge)、布伦尼奇海鸟(Uria Lomvia)、斑嘴鸟(Alca Torda)、大西洋海雀(Fratercula Arctica)和黑腿猫尾海鸟(Rissa Tridactyla)。这些数据涵盖了在挪威北部西部巴伦支海附近的霍诺亚殖民地进行的14年观测。3提出了一种考虑被标记个体环数丢失的方法。这种方法使保留许多原本必须丢弃的观察成为可能。4估计的存活率比来自其他群体的同一物种的大多数估计值更高，变化更小。有广泛的复视异质性。忽视这一影响将会低估某些物种的繁殖寿命50%以上。5这项分析是首次证明北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数与北大西洋海鸟成鸟存活率之间的关系。其他考虑的环境变量是海洋表面温度(SST)和猎物种群。在大多数物种中，包含气候变量的模型比具有恒定生存、时间依赖生存或猎物效应的模型得到的支持要好得多。SST往往比NAO更能解释海鸟生存的变异性。6猎物可获得性的重要性在一些物种中是显而易见的，但气候通常是更好的生存预测因素。然而，证据表明，气象参数只间接地影响海鸟的死亡率，可能是通过食物链。这一结论是基于观察到的大多数NAO效应是滞后的，并且存活率随着SST的增加而下降。
Summary 1 In long-lived species, adult survival is an important life-history trait. Better knowledge of the effects of non-catastrophic climate variation on the adult survival of long-lived seabirds is therefore needed. However, documentation of such effects is still rare. 2 Using capture–mark–resighting data, we modelled the annual survival rates of five species of seabirds, the common guillemot (Uria aalge), Brunnich's guillemot (Uria lomvia), razorbill (Alca torda), Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) and black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla). The data spanned 14 years of observation at a colony on Hornoya, off Northern Norway in the western Barents Sea. 3 A method of taking into account ring-loss of marked individuals is proposed. This approach made it possible to keep many observations which otherwise would have to be discarded. 4 The estimated survival rates were higher and less variable than most estimates for the same species from other colonies. There was extensive resighting heterogeneity. Ignoring this effect would have underestimated breeding life span by more than 50% in some species. 5 The analysis presented is the first study to document a correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and adult survival in North Atlantic seabirds. Other environmental variables considered were sea surface temperatures (SST) and prey stocks. In most of the species, models incorporating climatological variables were considerably better supported than models with constant survival, time-dependent survival or prey effects. SSTs tended to explain more of the variability in seabird survival than did the NAO. 6 The importance of prey availability was evident in some of the species, but climate was generally a better predictor of survival. Nevertheless, the evidence suggests that meteorological parameters affect seabird mortality only indirectly, possibly through the food chain. This conclusion rests on the observations that most NAO effects are lagged, and that survival rates decreased with increasing SSTs.