Simulation of the Madden– Julian Oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system
Simulation of the Madden– Julian Oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.623
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发表时间：
2010-04
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
F. Vitart;F. Molteni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Vitart;F. Molteni
从 1989 年到 2008 年，从每月 15 日开始，欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 预报系统完成了一系列为期 46 天的集合集成。后报模拟的马登-朱利安振荡 (MJO) 使用基于 200 和 850 hPa 纬向风和出射长波辐射的组合经验正交函数 (EOF) 的指数进行诊断。结果表明，动态模型能够在 46 天的积分过程中保持 MJO 的振幅，并且该模型显示了长达约 20 天的预测 MJO 演化的技能。但模型模拟的MJO向东传播速度过慢，穿越海洋大陆存在困难。
A series of 46‐day ensemble integrations starting on the 15th of each month from 1989 to 2008 has been completed with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system. The Madden– Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulated by the hindcasts is diagnosed using an index based on combined empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of zonal winds at 200 and 850 hPa and outgoing long‐wave radiation. Results indicate that the dynamical model is able to maintain the amplitude of the MJO during the 46 days of integrations and the model displays skill for up to about 20 days to predict the evolution of the MJO. However, the MJO simulated by the model has a too slow eastward propagation and has difficulties crossing the Maritime Continent.