The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the Madden–Julian oscillation
The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the Madden–Julian oscillation
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DOI：
10.1038/s43017-021-00173-9
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发表时间：
2021-06
影响因子：
42.1
通讯作者：
Z. Martin;S. Son;A. Butler;H. Hendon;Hyemi Kim;A. Sobel;S. Yoden;Chidong Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Z. Martin;S. Son;A. Butler;H. Hendon;Hyemi Kim;A. Sobel;S. Yoden;Chidong Zhang
平流层准两年振荡（QBO）和对流层Madden-Julian振荡（MJO）在北方冬季有很强的联系。在这篇综述中，我们综合了QBO-MJO联系的观测和建模证据，并讨论了其对MJO遥相关和季节性预测的影响。1980年以后，观测表明，在冬季，当平流层下部的QBO风是东风时，MJO比QBO风是西风时强约40%，持续时间大约长10天。全球次季节预报模型，反过来，显示了一个1周的改进（或25%的增强）MJO预测技能在QBO东风与QBO西风阶段。尽管观测到的QBO-MJO联系及其通过大气遥相关的全球影响具有鲁棒性，但驱动这种联系的机制尚不确定。理论主要集中在QBO相关的温度分层效应和随后对深对流的影响，尽管其他假设提出云辐射效应或QBO对波传播的影响可能很重要。然而，大多数数值模型无法重现所观察到的QBO-MJO关系，这表明模型中的关键物理过程存在偏差、缺陷或遗漏。虽然未来的工作必须努力更好地理解QBO-MJO链接的各个方面，但需要将重点放在建立工作机制和捕获模型中的连接上。
The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the tropospheric Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are strongly linked in boreal winter. In this Review, we synthesize observational and modelling evidence for this QBO–MJO connection and discuss its effects on MJO teleconnections and subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. After 1980, observations indicate that, during winters when lower-stratospheric QBO winds are easterly, the MJO is ~40% stronger and persists roughly 10 days longer compared with when QBO winds are westerly. Global subseasonal forecast models, in turn, show a 1-week improvement (or 25% enhancement) in MJO prediction skill in QBO easterly versus QBO westerly phases. Despite the robustness of the observed QBO–MJO link and its global impacts via atmospheric teleconnections, the mechanisms that drive the connection are uncertain. Theories largely centre on QBO-related temperature stratification effects and subsequent impacts on deep convection, although other hypotheses propose that cloud radiative effects or QBO impacts on wave propagation might be important. Most numerical models, however, are unable to reproduce the observed QBO–MJO relationship, suggesting biases, deficiencies or omission of key physical processes in the models. While future work must strive to better understand all aspects of the QBO–MJO link, focus is needed on establishing a working mechanism and capturing the connection in models.