The Boundedness Illusion: Asymptotic projections from early evolution underestimate evolutionary potential
The Boundedness Illusion: Asymptotic projections from early evolution underestimate evolutionary potential
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有界错觉：早期进化的渐近预测低估了进化潜力
DOI：
10.7287/peerj.preprints.27246v2
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Charles Ofria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michael J. Wiser;Emily L. Dolson;Anya E. Vostinar;R. Lenski;Charles Ofria
开放式进化研究人员寻求创造能够不断产生新的进化结果的系统，试图反映自然界进化的力量和多样性。所使用的具体指标（新颖性、复杂性、多样性等）因研究人员而异，但最重要的是，任何这些指标都可以无限累积的系统。当然，在实现这一目标的过程中，我们面临的一个挑战甚至是承认我们是否已经成功。为了确定一个系统的进化潜力，我们必须进行有限的实验；根据他们的研究结果，我们可以预测如果进化继续下去，我们将如何期望进化取得进展。在这里，我们将研究如何做出这样的预测，以及预测的准确性。我们专注于预测适合度；这个指标通常很容易计算，并且与新颖性和复杂性等特征的增加相关。对于简单的数字进化实验中的每一次运行，我们都找到了适合度测量值的最佳拟合，并证明了预测这种拟合通常预测适合度将受到渐近线的约束。然而，在扩展实验后，我们看到适应度往往远远超过这条渐近线，掩盖了它所暗示的有界性。延伸到一个过早的终点，让我们看到超越这种“有界错觉”的东西。
Open-ended evolution researchers seek to create systems that continually produce new evolutionary outcomes, attempting to reflect the power and diversity of evolution in nature. The specific metrics used (novelty, complexity, diversity, etc) vary by researcher, but the holy grail would be a system where any of these can accumulate indefinitely. Of course, one challenge that we face in reaching this goal is even recognizing if we have succeeded. To determine the evolutionary potential of a system, we must conduct finite experiments; based on their results we can predict how we would expect evolution to progress were it to continue. Here we examine how such predictions might be made and how accurate they might be. We focus on predicting fitness; this metric is often easy to calculate, and correlated with increases in traits like novelty and complexity. For each run in a simple digital evolution experiment, we find the best fit to measured values of fitness, and demonstrate that projecting this fit out usually predicts that fitness will be constrained by an asymptote. Upon extending the experiment, however, we see that fitness often far exceeds this asymptote, belying the boundedness that it implies. Extending past a premature end point allows us to see beyond this "boundedness illusion"
MODES 工具箱：演化系统中开放式动力学的测量
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Dolson, Emily L;Vostinar, Anya E;Wiser, Michael J;Ofria, Charles
通讯作者：
Ofria, Charles