Methodology for Identifying Highway Safety Problem Areas
Methodology for Identifying Highway Safety Problem Areas
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DOI：
10.1177/0361198196154200108
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发表时间：
1996-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
A. Tarko;K. Sinha;O. Farooq
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Tarko;K. Sinha;O. Farooq
安全计划只有在对真正需要安全处理的地点和地区采取有效的对策时才能提供效益。提出了一种区域安全性分析的方法，以检测这些地区（州、县、乡镇等）。应该考虑安全治疗。该方法在县一级为印第安纳州实施。该方法使用回归模型来估计各个县的正常撞车次数。过去几年计算出的高于标准的撞车次数被用来预测未来一年实施安全处理时的高于标准的值。这些县是优先排序使用的综合标准，包括以上标准的崩溃和信心水平。非正常碰撞代表了问题的严重性，具体来说，如果安全水平正常，可以避免多少碰撞。置信水平表示观察到的过多碰撞次数不仅仅是随机效应，而是指示真实的安全问题的可能性。最后，以酒精相关事故为例进行了分析，验证了该方法的有效性。结果是令人鼓舞的，并与以前的研究中获得的结果一致。
Safety programs can provide benefits only if they apply effective countermeasures to the locations and areas that really need safety treatment. A methodology of areawide safety analyses is presented to detect these areas (states, counties, townships, etc.) that should be considered for safety treatment. The method is implemented for Indiana at the county level. The method uses regression models to estimate the normal number of crashes in individual counties. The above-norm numbers of crashes calculated for several past years are used to predict the above-norm value for the future year when the safety treatment is to be applied. The counties are priority ranked using the combined criterion including both the above-norm number of crashes and the confidence level. Above-norm crashes represent the magnitude of the problem—specifically, how many crashes could be avoided if the safety level was normal. A confidence level represents the chance that the observed excessive number of crashes is not just a random effect, but indicates a real safety problem. The example analysis is performed for the alcohol-related crashes to illustrate and test the method. The results are promising and in conformance with the results obtained in the previous study.