Capital Market Prices, Management Forecasts, and Earnings Management
Capital Market Prices, Management Forecasts, and Earnings Management
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资本市场价格、管理层预测和盈余管理
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1028423
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Beyer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Beyer
摘要：本文分析了在企业现金流分布均值和方差均未知的情况下，企业管理者的最优盈余预测策略和最优盈余管理政策。分析表明，企业的均衡价格是经理的预测、公司的报告收益和经理收益预测的平方误差的函数。该模型包含几个预测，包括：(1)管理者操纵盈余以减少其在盈余公告日的预测误差；(2)公司的股票价格对公司的实际收益公告比对经理人的预测更敏感；(3)在控制盈余报告水平和盈余意外程度的情况下，当公司在盈余公告日出现正面意外时，其股价高于出现负面意外时的股价。
ABSTRACT: I analyze a manager's optimal earnings forecasting strategy and optimal earnings management policy in a setting where both the mean and the variance of the distribution generating the firm's cash flows are unknown. The analysis shows that the equilibrium price of the firm is a function of the manager's forecast, the firm's reported earnings, and the squared error in the manager's earnings forecast. The model contains several predictions, including: (1) the manager manipulates earnings to reduce his forecast error at the earnings announcement date; (2) the firm's stock price is more sensitive to the firm's actual earnings announcement than to the manager's forecast; and (3) controlling for the level of reported earnings and the magnitude of the earnings surprise, the firm's price is higher when it has a positive surprise at the earnings announcement date than when it has a negative surprise.
DOI：
10.2307/2987329
发表时间：
1970-06
期刊：
--
影响因子：
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作者：
M. Degroot
通讯作者：
M. Degroot