How the iPhone Widens the US Trade Deficit with China: the Case of the iPhone X
How the iPhone Widens the US Trade Deficit with China: the Case of the iPhone X
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iPhone如何扩大美国对华贸易逆差：以iPhone X为例
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yuqing Xing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yuqing Xing
通过对iPhone X案例的研究，本文证明了参与iPhone X生产的中国公司已经向价值链上游移动。根据材料清单，这些公司贡献了iPhone X 25%的附加值。iPhone X约45%的附加值来自日本、韩国和其他经济体。IPhone贸易仍然是中美双边贸易不平衡统计失真的一个重要因素。就总值而言，一部iPhone X的进口导致美国出现332.75美元的贸易逆差；以附加值衡量，贸易逆差仅为10400万美元。人民币贬值抵消特朗普政府征收的关税的能力非常有限，因为中国出口产品中嵌入的外国附加值平均为33.9%。模拟结果显示，要抵消25%的关税，人民币对美元平均必须贬值43.3%；要完全补偿iPhone X 25%的关税负担，人民币贬值400%是必要的。通过人民币贬值来对冲美国惩罚性关税的风险是不可能的。
Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in production of the iPhone X have moved up the value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated from Japan, Korean and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistics distortion of the Sino-US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a $332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of value added, the deficit is a mere $104. Depreciation of the yuan has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the yuan would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average; and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the yuan would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive US tariffs by depreciation of the yuan is mission impossible.