Evaluation of multidecadal and longer-term temperature changes since 850 CE based on Northern Hemisphere proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations
Evaluation of multidecadal and longer-term temperature changes since 850 CE based on Northern Hemisphere proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations
复制标题
基于北半球代理重建和模型模拟评估自公元 850 年以来的数十年和长期温度变化
DOI：
10.1007/s11430-019-9607-x
复制
发表时间：
2020-05
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Liu Jingjing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Jianglin;Yang Bao;Zheng Jingyun;Zhang Xuezhen;Wang Zhiyuan;Fang Miao;Shi Feng;Liu Jingjing
在几十年和更长的时间尺度上的温度变率（例如，15世纪末、17世纪末和19世纪初的冷期）在长达千年的大规模重建和模式模拟中具有重要意义和主导作用;然而，它们在重建的和模拟的温度序列中的时间模式还没有被很好地理解，需要详细的评估和比较。我们比较了重建和模拟的北方半球（NH）多年和长期时间尺度的温度序列（>30年）的相关性、气候敏感性和温度变化幅度。我们发现，由于它们相似的长期时间模式，不同重建之间或重建与模拟之间的相关性在整个850-1999 CE期间普遍很高。然而，不同重建之间或重建与模拟之间的协方差随着时间序列在时间上进一步向后延伸而稳定下降，在中世纪时期变得特别小。这与重建中的大不确定性有关，重建中的不确定性是由前中世纪时期代理记录和样本重复数量的减少造成的。仪器周期。仅基于树轮数据的重建比多代理重建在捕捉模型模拟的火山冷却幅度方面表现出更高的技能。同时，气候模型的恢复时间较短（即，滞后）响应火山爆发和太阳活动最小值引起的冷却，气候模式中缺乏外部强迫与内部气候过程之间的重要反馈机制。最新发表的树轮重建的温度变化幅度与多代理重建的温度变化幅度相当。我们发现，中世纪气候异常之间的温度差异（950-1250 CE）和小冰河时期（1450-1850 CE）在基于代理的重建中通常比在模型模拟中更大，但原因尚不清楚。
The temperature variability over multidecadal and longer timescales(e.g.,the cold epochs in the late 15th,17th,and early 19th centuries)is significant and dominant in the millennium-long,large-scale reconstructions and model simulations;however,their temporal patterns in the reconstructed and simulated temperature series are not well understood and require a detailed assessment and comparison.Here,we compare the reconstructed and simulated temperature series for the Northern Hemisphere(NH)at multidecadal and longer-term timescales(>30 years)by evaluating their covariance,climate sensitivity and amplitude of temperature changes.We found that covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations are generally high for the whole period of 850–1999 CE,due to their similar long-term temporal patterns.However,covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations steadily decline as time series extends further back in time,becoming particularly small during Medieval times.This is related to the large uncetainties in the reconstructions caused by the decreased number of proxy records and sample duplication during the pre-instrumental periods.Reconstructions based solely on tree-ring data show higher skill than multiproxy reconstructions in capturing the amplitude of volcanic cooling simulated by models.Meanwhile,climate models have a shorter recovery(i.e.,lag)in response to the cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and solar activity minima,implying the lack of some important feedback mechanisms between external forcing and internal climate processes in climate models.Amplitudes of temperature variations in the latest published tree-ring reconstructions are comparable to those of the multiproxy reconstructions.We found that the temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly(950–1250 CE)and the Little Ice Age(1450–1850 CE)is generally larger in proxybased reconstructions than in model simulations,but the reason is unclear.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1017/cbo9781107415324.013
发表时间：
2013-02
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
V. Masson‐Delmotte;M. Schulz;A. Abe‐Ouchi;J. Beer;A. Ganopolski;J. F. G. Rouco;E. Jansen;K. Lamb
通讯作者：
V. Masson‐Delmotte;M. Schulz;A. Abe‐Ouchi;J. Beer;A. Ganopolski;J. F. G. Rouco;E. Jansen;K. Lamb
前工业化时期中国地表气温与大西洋数十年涛动（AMO）的潜在联系
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Li ShuangLin;Jing YuanYuan;Luo FeiFei
通讯作者：
Luo FeiFei
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Tao Han;Kefu Yu;Hong Yan;Hongqiang Yan;Shichen Tao;Huiling Zhang;Shaopeng Wang;Tegu Chen
通讯作者：
Tao Han;Kefu Yu;Hong Yan;Hongqiang Yan;Shichen Tao;Huiling Zhang;Shaopeng Wang;Tegu Chen
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0459.2010.00399.x
发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
1.5
作者：
Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier
通讯作者：
Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Esper;E. Cook;P. Krusic;K. Peters;F. Schweingruber
通讯作者：
J. Esper;E. Cook;P. Krusic;K. Peters;F. Schweingruber