Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model
Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model
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DOI：
10.1029/2004gb002239
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发表时间：
2004-08-18
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hu, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhuang, Q;Melillo, JM;Hu, S
我们开发并使用新版陆地生态系统模型（TEM）来研究过去一个世纪北半球高纬度土壤中甲烷（CH4）排放和消耗的速率如何响应观测到的该地区气候变化。我们估计，在20世纪，这些土壤的CH4净排放量（排放量减去消耗量）平均增加了0.08 Tg CH4年（-1）。我们对该地区本世纪末年净排放率的估计为51 Tg CH4年（-1）。俄罗斯、加拿大和阿拉斯加是大气中主要的甲烷区域排放源，分别占净排放量的64%、11%和7%。我们的模拟表明，在上个世纪，甲烷净排放量出现了较大的年际变化。我们对CH4净排放对过去气候变化的响应分析表明，未来全球变暖将增加泛北极地区的CH4净排放。较高的CH4净排放量可能增加大气中CH4的浓度，从而为气候系统提供一个主要的正反馈。
[1] We develop and use a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in high-latitude soils of the Northern Hemisphere have changed over the past century in response to observed changes in the region's climate. We estimate that the net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from these soils have increased by an average 0.08 Tg CH4 yr(-1) during the twentieth century. Our estimate of the annual net emission rate at the end of the century for the region is 51 Tg CH4 yr(-1). Russia, Canada, and Alaska are the major CH4 regional sources to the atmosphere, responsible for 64%, 11%, and 7% of these net emissions, respectively. Our simulations indicate that large interannual variability in net CH4 emissions occurred over the last century. Our analyses of the responses of net CH4 emissions to the past climate change suggest that future global warming will increase net CH4 emissions from the Pan-Arctic region. The higher net CH4 emissions may increase atmospheric CH4 concentrations to provide a major positive feedback to the climate system.