Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models
Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11258-021-01147-z
复制
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
T. Shitara;S. Fukui;T. Matsui;A. Momohara;Ikutaro Tsuyama;Haruka Ohashi;Nobuyuki Tanaka;T. Kamijo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Shitara;S. Fukui;T. Matsui;A. Momohara;Ikutaro Tsuyama;Haruka Ohashi;Nobuyuki Tanaka;T. Kamijo
阐明古气候变化对植物间断分布形成的影响，可以从历史和机械的角度理解当前的植被和生物多样性。本研究利用物种分布模型研究了古气候变化对红松间断分布形成的影响。一个物种分布模型（SDM）建立使用最大熵原理算法（MaxEnt），数据从152个出现的物种，和四个生物气候变量在2.5弧分（约5公里）的空间分辨率。模拟显示MaxEnt模型性能的极好拟合，曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.922，连续博伊斯指数（BCI）值为0.925，具有五重交叉验证。最重要的气候因子是最冷月的最低气温。该物种的适宜栖息地在− 30.1至− 4.1 °C之间。末次盛冰期（约22，000年前[ka BP]：末次盛冰期）时期的预测适宜生境在中国东部、朝鲜半岛南部和日本列岛广泛分布。全新世中期（约6 ka BP）后，适宜的栖息地在大陆地区向北扩展，并从日本北部和西南部撤退。这最终在日本中部形成了间断的适宜栖息地。末次盛冰期后温度的升高引起了P的迁移。koraiensstoward新的，适宜的栖息地在东北亚大陆，而在日本列岛的物种撤退，形成了现在的间断分布。
Clarifying the influences of paleoclimate changes on the disjunct distribution formation of plants allows a historical and mechanical understanding of current vegetation and biodiversity. This study investigated the influences of paleoclimate changes on the present disjunct distribution formation ofPinus koraiensis(Korean pine) using species distribution modeling. A species distribution model (SDM) was built using maximum entropy principle algorithms (MaxEnt), data from 152 occurrences of the species, and four bioclimatic variables at 2.5 arcminute (approximately 5 km) spatial resolution. The simulation revealed the excellent fit of the MaxEnt model performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.922 and continuous Boyce index (BCI) value of 0.925 with fivefold cross-validation. The most important climatic factor was the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Suitable habitats for the species ranged between − 30.1 and − 4.1 °C. Projected suitable habitats under the Last Glacial Maximum (approximately 22,000 years ago [ka BP]: LGM) period showed wide distributions in eastern China, the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, and the Japanese Archipelago. After the mid-Holocene (approximately 6 ka BP), the suitable habitats expanded northwards in continental regions and retreated from both north and southwest of Japan. This eventually formed disjunct suitable habitats in central Japan. An increase in temperature after the LGM period caused the migration ofP. koraiensistoward new, suitable habitats in continental Northeast Asia, while species in the Japanese Archipelago retreated, forming the present disjunct distributions.