Nonparametric Counterfactual Predictions in Neoclassical Models of International Trade
Nonparametric Counterfactual Predictions in Neoclassical Models of International Trade
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DOI：
10.1257/aer.20150956
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发表时间：
2017-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Rodrigo Adão;Arnaud Costinot;D. Donaldson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rodrigo Adão;Arnaud Costinot;D. Donaldson
我们开发了一种在新古典国际贸易模型中构建非参数反事实预测的方法，不受偏好和技术的函数形式限制。首先，我们建立了这种模型与各国直接交换要素服务的约简交换模型之间的等价性。这种等价性意味着，对于贸易成本的任意变化，贸易的要素含量、要素价格和福利的反事实变化仅取决于要素需求体系的减少。其次，我们给出了该系统的估计可以非参数恢复的充分条件。总而言之，这些结果提供了所谓重力模型中使用的参数方法的严格推广。最后，我们以中国最近融入世界经济的例子来说明我们方法的可行性和潜在的好处。
We develop a methodology to construct nonparametric counterfactual predictions, free of functional-form restrictions on preferences and technology, in neoclassical models of international trade. First, we establish the equivalence between such models and reduced exchange models in which countries directly exchange factor services. This equivalence implies that, for an arbitrary change in trade costs, counterfactual changes in the factor content of trade, factor prices, and welfare only depend on the shape of a reduced factor demand system. Second, we provide sufficient conditions under which estimates of this system can be recovered nonparametrically. Together, these results offer a strict generalization of the parametric approach used in so-called gravity models. Finally, we use China's recent integration into the world economy to illustrate the feasibility and potential benefits of our approach.