Impacts of Climate Changes on Water Resources in Yellow River Basin, China☆
Impacts of Climate Changes on Water Resources in Yellow River Basin, China☆
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.570
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yongnan Zhu;Zhaohui Lin;Jian-hua Wang;Yong Zhao;Fan He
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yongnan Zhu;Zhaohui Lin;Jian-hua Wang;Yong Zhao;Fan He
本文研究了未来气候变化对黄河流域水资源和极端径流的影响，中国，利用IPCC情景RCP2.6、4.5和8.5驱动的陆面-水文耦合模式系统(CLHMS)。首先，对14台IPCC AR5 GCMS模拟黄河流域时空温度和降水的能力进行了评估。利用RCP故事情节的偏差校正结果，开发了预测21世纪气候和水循环变化的CLHMS模型。这三个模拟结果都表明水资源减少。自上世纪80年代以来水资源短缺的现状将持续下去，在RCP 2.6和4.5情景下，水资源减少幅度在30%到24%之间。RCP 8.5情景模拟显示，21世纪上中期水资源减少，但2080年后，随着降雨量的增加，极端洪水事件有增加的趋势。
This study examined the impacts of future climate changes on water resources and extreme flows in Yellow River Basin (YRB), China, using the Coupled Land surface and Hydrology Model System (CLHMS) driven by the IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. First, the skill of 14 IPCC AR5 GCMS for simulating temporal and spatial temperature and precipitation in Yellow River Basin has been evaluated. Using the bias-corrected result of RCP storylines, the CLHMS model was developed to predict the 21 century climate and water cycle change. All the three simulation results indicate a reduction in water resources. The current situation of water shortage since 1980s will keep continue, the water resources reduction varies between 30 and 24% for RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios. RCP 8.5 scenario simulation shows a decrease of water resources in the early and mid 21th century, but after 2080, with the increase of rainfall, the extreme flood events tends to increase.