Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species
Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0007400
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发表时间：
2009-10-14
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Kiesecker, Joseph M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Copeland, Holly E.;Doherty, Kevin E.;Kiesecker, Joseph M.
背景：许多研究量化了碳氢化合物经济对气候变化和生物多样性的间接影响，得出的结论是，相当大比例的物种将面临灭绝的威胁。然而，很少有研究衡量新的能源生产基础设施对物种持续生存的直接影响。方法/主要发现：我们提出了一种系统的方法来预测未来能源发展的模式，并使用空间显式预测建模技术来计算对物种的影响，以估计石油和天然气潜力，并通过在景观中播种基于潜在潜力的石油和天然气井来创造开发建设情景。我们举例说明了我们对美国西部更大的鼠尾松鸡(Centrocercus Urophasianus)的方法，并将建设情景转化为对鼠尾松鸡的估计影响。我们预测，未来的油气开发将导致鼠尾松种群数量比2007年下降7%-19%，并影响研究区370万公顷的鼠尾草灌丛和110万公顷的草原。结论/意义：美国西部山间地区油气开发预期地点图可供决策者使用，旨在将对鼠尾松的影响降至最低。这一分析还提供了使用预测模型和建设情景来预测对物种的影响的一般框架。这些预测模型和扩建方案允许在实施之前考虑物种保护和能源开发之间的权衡。
Background: Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence.Methodology/Principal Findings: We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7-19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area.Conclusions/Significance: Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation.