Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
复制标题
巴基斯坦的公共基础设施和经济增长：动态 CGE 微观模拟分析
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3168027
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Saira Ahmed
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
V. Ahmed;Ahsan Abbas;Saira Ahmed
在过去的三十年里，基础设施在经济增长和福利中的作用已经被广泛研究。我们使用与微观模拟模型相关联的动态CGE模型来估计公共基础设施投资的宏观-微观影响。在我们的模拟中考虑了两种公共投资方法。在第一种情况下，生产税为额外的公共基础设施投资提供资金；在第二种情况下，外国借款提供资源。我们的研究结果表明，无论是通过税收还是国际借贷融资，公共基础设施投资都具有相同的影响方向，特别是在考虑宏观经济收益和长期减贫时。然而，在短期内，税收融资会对工业部门的产出造成压力，从而在短期内降低经济增长。从出口的下降可以看出，从国际借贷中获得的资金在短期内产生了类似荷兰病的影响。
The role of infrastructure in economic growth and welfare has been studied extensively across the literature over the past three decades. We use a dynamic CGE model linked to a microsimulation model to estimate the macro-micro impact of public infrastructure investment. Two approaches to public investment are considered in our simulations. In the first, production taxes finance the additional public infrastructure investment and in the second, foreign borrowing provides resources. Our results reveal that public infrastructure investments have the same direction of impact whether funded by taxation or international borrowing, particularly when looking at macroeconomic gains and poverty reduction in the long run. However, in the very short run, tax financing puts a strain on output in the industrial sector and thus reduces economic growth in the short run. The financing from international borrowing has a Dutch disease-like impact in the short run, as indicated by a decline in exports.
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Devarajan, S;Swaroop, V;Zou, HF
通讯作者：
Zou, HF