Modelling energy transition risk: The impact of declining energy return on investment (EROI)
Modelling energy transition risk: The impact of declining energy return on investment (EROI)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107023
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发表时间：
2021-07
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
A. Jackson;Tim Jackson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Jackson;Tim Jackson
净能源分析领域的一些论文认为，能源投资回报率的下降可能导致能源价格上涨和经济增长下降。本文将存量-流量一致（SFC）方法与投入-产出（IO）模型相结合，建立了一个能够模拟减少EROI的能源技术转型的经济和财务影响的模型（TranSim）。首先，它包括三个公司部门，生产能源，资本和其他（非能源，非资本）货物。其次，一个IO模型和一个几乎理想的需求系统集成到SFC模型。第三，资本年份酒具有内在的劳动生产率水平和中间产品需求，这取决于年份酒生产时期的经济条件。模拟的特点是产量最初增加（由于投资增加），随后是衰退期和低于趋势增长（由于价格通胀和功能收入分配的变化）。与转型相关的负面影响-衰退、停滞、滞胀、不平等加剧和资产搁浅-与绿色能源生产的资本密集度和EROI的减少呈正相关。
A number of papers in the field of net energy analysis have argued that declines in energy return on investment (EROI) could lead to increasing energy prices and a fall in economic growth. This paper develops a model (TranSim) which can simulate the economic and financial implications of an energy technology transition involving a reduction in EROI, by combining the stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach with an input-output (IO) model.The TranSim model has the following key features. First, it includes three firm sectors, that produce energy, capital, and other (non-energy, non-capital) goods. Second, an IO model and an Almost Ideal Demand System are integrated into the SFC model. Third, capital vintages have embedded levels of labour productivity and intermediate good requirements that depend on the economic conditions in the period the vintage was produced.Simulations are characterised by an initial increase in output (due to higher investment), followed by periods of recession and below trend growth (due to price inflation and changes to the functional income distribution). The negative effects associated with the transition – recession, stagnation, stagflation, increasing inequality and asset stranding – are positively related to the capital intensity of green energy production and reductions in EROI.