Model analyses for sustainable energy supply taking resource and environmental constraints into consideration
Model analyses for sustainable energy supply taking resource and environmental constraints into consideration
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考虑资源环境约束的可持续能源供应模型分析
DOI：
10.1016/0196-8904(95)00329-0
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Ishitani
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Matsuhashi;K. Hikita;H. Ishitani
本文旨在阐明在资源环境约束条件下实现能源可持续供应的关键点。为此，我们首先开发了一个数据库，用于估算各种能源系统的生命周期效率和温室气体排放。在此生命周期评价的基础上，定量定义了资源消耗和环境排放的“可持续性限制”概念。从这一概念出发，从资源和环境两个角度来判断当今世界是不可持续的。与此同时，我们澄清了当今世界离可持续发展的局限性有多远。然后，我们描述了我们的数学模型模拟全球能源供应和需求的超长期。在该模型中，可持续性限制的概念被用来施加经济激励，使能源系统转向一个可持续的长期。考虑了资源消耗和二氧化碳排放的可持续性限制。作为能源资源，这一模式包括煤炭、石油、天然气、其他非常规化石燃料、铀和可再生资源。作为能源技术，它包括采矿、运输、转换和最终利用的主要技术。计算结果表明，目前的能源系统，这是判断为不可持续的，转移到一个可持续的系统在超长期与适当的激励措施。
This paper aims at clarifying key points for realizing sustainable energy supply under restrictions on resource and environment. For this purpose, we first developed a database to estimate life cycle efficiencies and greenhouse gas emissions for various energy systems. Then on the basis of this life cycle assessment, we quantitatively define the concept of ‘Sustainability Limitations’ on resource depletion and environmental emissions. From this concept, present world is judged to be unsustainable both from resource and environmental viewpoints. At the same time, we clarify how far present world is from Sustainability Limitations. Then we describe our mathematical model simulating global energy supply and demand in ultra-long term. In this model, the concept of Sustainability Limitations is utilized so as to impose economic incentives to make energy system shift to a sustainable one in long term. Sustainability limitations of resource depletion and CO2 emissions are taken into consideration. As energy resources, this model includes coal, oil, natural gas, other unconventional fossil fuels, uranium and renewable resources. As energy technologies, it includes major technologies of mining, transport, conversion and final utilization. Computed results have shown that present energy system, which is judged to be unsustainable, shifts to a sustainable system in the ultra-long term with appropriate incentives.