Project Value Assessment of Thermal Power Plant based on RNPV Probit Model Considering Real Option
Project Value Assessment of Thermal Power Plant based on RNPV Probit Model Considering Real Option
复制标题
基于考虑实物期权的RNPV Probit模型的火电厂项目价值评估
DOI：
10.12949/realopn.5.1
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Misawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Takafumi Hirose;H. Miyauchi;T. Misawa
在世界范围内，对电力公司的放松管制正在进行。随着商业环境的不确定性增加，资产投资的回报也不确定。因此，电力公司应评估适当的资本投资价值。在只观察项目执行情况的情况下，本文提出了一种基于概率模型（RNPV probit model）的发电投资风险评估方法，将基于效用无差异定价的净现值评估方法进行了简化。本文将RNPV概率模型应用于考虑放弃期权这一实物期权的火电厂资产评估。
Deregulation of electric power utilities are processing in the world. As the uncertainties of the business environment are increasing, return for asset investment is also uncertain. Therefore, the electric utilities should evaluate the appropriate value of the capital investment. When only the execution of the project is observed, we have proposed a risk assessment method for generation investment by the probit model (RNPV probit model) which simplifies the evaluation method by the net present value based on utility indifference pricing. In this paper, RNPV probit model is applied to asset evaluation of thermal power plant considering the option to abandon, a kind of real option.