Projecting End-of-Century Human Exposure from Tornadoes and Severe Hailstorms in Eastern Colorado: Meteorological and Population Perspectives
Projecting End-of-Century Human Exposure from Tornadoes and Severe Hailstorms in Eastern Colorado: Meteorological and Population Perspectives
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DOI：
10.1175/wcas-d-19-0153.1
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发表时间：
2020-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. J. Childs;R. Schumacher;Stephen M. Strader
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. J. Childs;R. Schumacher;Stephen M. Strader
沿科罗拉多州前锋山脉和东部平原的强烈对流风暴经常产生龙卷风和冰雹，导致每年的重大破坏和农作物损失。确定未来人类对这些事件的暴露必须同时考虑气象条件和人口动态的变化。EF0+龙卷风(增强藤田等级)和严重龙卷风[1.0+in.(25.4+mm)]2100年的冰雹报告是使用动态缩小的GFDL气候模式第3版(GFDL CM3)生成的对流参数代理来计算的，该模型为控制和未来气候情景而输出。代理数据表明，到2100年，该地区的龙卷风和冰雹日数可能每年增加多达1个龙卷风日和3个冰雹日，其中科罗拉多州东北部的增加幅度最大。使用空间显式蒙特卡罗模型，预测未来龙卷风和冰雹的频率和空间变化与来自共享社会经济路径(SSP)的人口预测叠加，以提供世纪末人类暴露于龙卷风和冰雹的一系列可能情景。到2100年，灾害频率和空间分布的变化可能使人类暴露在该地区的龙卷风和冰雹分别增加117%和178%，尽管具体结果对未来危险空间分布和人口之间重叠的不确定组合很敏感。本文提出的研究结果不仅将为公众、保险公司、政策制定者、土地利用规划者和研究人员提供对前山脉地区未来龙卷风和冰雹潜在影响的估计，还将使气象企业更好地了解、准备和传达科罗拉多州东部社区的龙卷风和冰雹风险。
Severe convective storms along the Front Range and eastern plains of Colorado frequently produce tornadoes and hail, leading to substantial damage and crop losses annually. Determination of future human exposure from these events must consider both changes in meteorological conditions and population dynamics. Projections of EF0 + tornadoes (on the enhanced Fujita scale) and severe [1.0+ in. (25.4+ mm)] hail reports out to the year 2100 are computed using convective parameter proxies generated from dynamically downscaled GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), output by the WRF Model for control and future climate scenarios. The proxies suggest that tornado and hail days in the region may increase by up to one tornado day and three hail days per year by 2100, with the greatest increases across northeastern Colorado. Using a spatially explicit Monte Carlo model, projected future frequency and spatial changes in tornadoes and hail are superimposed with population projections from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to provide a range of possible scenarios for end-of-century human exposure to tornadoes and hailstorms. Changes in hazard frequency and spatial distribution may amplify human exposure up to 117% for tornadoes and 178% for hail in the region by 2100, although specific results are sensitive to uncertain combinations of future overlaps between hazard spatial distribution and population. Findings presented herein not only will provide the public, insurers, policy makers, land-use planners, and researchers with estimates of potential future tornado and hail impacts in the Front Range region, they also will allow the weather enterprise to better understand, prepare for, and communicate tornado and hail risk to eastern Colorado communities.