Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system
Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-022-04423-8
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发表时间：
2022-02
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
F. Moore;K. Lacasse;K. Mach;Yoon Ah Shin;L. Gross;B. Beckage
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Moore;K. Lacasse;K. Mach;Yoon Ah Shin;L. Gross;B. Beckage
气候政策的雄心壮志和有效性对于确定温室气体排放以及气候变化影响的规模至关重要。然而，在几乎所有气候变化模型中，将决定气候政策和排放轨迹的社会-政治-技术进程被视为外生的。在这里，我们确定了在一系列学科中记录的相关反馈过程，并将它们连接到气候-社会系统的风格化模型中。对榜样行为的分析揭示了可能出现的非线性和临界点，特别是与所代表的个人、社区、国家和全球规模的联系有关的非线性和临界点。这些联系可能对决定政策和排放结果具有决定性作用。在使用观测对模型参数空间进行部分约束后，我们模拟了100,000个未来可能的政策和排放轨迹。它们分成5个星团，2100年变暖，比1880年至1910年的平均温度高出1.8 °C到3.6 °C。公众对气候变化的看法、缓解技术的未来成本和有效性以及政治机构的反应能力在解释排放途径的变化以及21世纪对气候变暖的制约方面变得非常重要。
The ambition and effectiveness of climate policies will be essential in determining greenhouse gas emissions and, as a consequence, the scale of climate change impacts,. However, the socio-politico-technical processes that will determine climate policy and emissions trajectories are treated as exogenous in almost all climate change modelling,. Here we identify relevant feedback processes documented across a range of disciplines and connect them in a stylized model of the climate–social system. An analysis of model behaviour reveals the potential for nonlinearities and tipping points that are particularly associated with connections across the individual, community, national and global scales represented. These connections can be decisive for determining policy and emissions outcomes. After partly constraining the model parameter space using observations, we simulate 100,000 possible future policy and emissions trajectories. These fall into 5 clusters with warming in 2100 ranging between 1.8 °C and 3.6 °C above the 1880–1910 average. Public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of mitigation technologies, and the responsiveness of political institutions emerge as important in explaining variation in emissions pathways and therefore the constraints on warming over the twenty-first century.