The impact of eliminating the global illicit cigarette trade on health and revenue
The impact of eliminating the global illicit cigarette trade on health and revenue
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2010.03018.x
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发表时间：
2010-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Raw, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Joossens, Luk;Merriman, David;Raw, Martin
目的这项研究的目的是根据最近的数据更新全球对非法卷烟贸易的估计，并估计通过消除这种贸易可以挽救多少人的生命，以及各国政府将获得多少收入。数据来源和方法我们对非法市场份额的估计基于正式和非正式来源。我们估计消除非法贸易对与烟草有关的死亡的影响的方法是基于West等人的。结果根据现有的估计，各国之间的非法贸易规模各不相同，分别占市场的1%至约40%至50%，全球占11.6%，低收入国家占16.8%，高收入国家占9.8%。每年损失的收入总额约为405亿美元。如果消除这种非法贸易，各国政府每年将获得至少313亿美元的收入，从2030年起，每年将避免超过16.4万人过早死亡，其中绝大多数发生在中低收入国家。结论非法卷烟贸易造成的死亡和收入损失的负担不成比例地落在了低收入和中等收入国家。消除这种贸易将避免数百万人过早死亡，并为各国政府追回数十亿美元。
AimsThe purpose of this study was to update global estimates of the illicit cigarette trade, based on recent data, and estimate how many lives could be saved by eliminating it and how much revenue governments would gain.Data sources and methodsOur estimates of illicit market share are based on formal and informal sources. Our method for estimating the effect of eliminating the illicit trade on tobacco related deaths is based on West et al. with some minor modifications, and involves calculating the size of the illicit cigarette trade; the effect of eliminating it on the price of cigarettes and thus on consumption; the revenue governments are losing because of it; and the number of tobacco-related premature deaths that would be avoided if this illicit trade were eliminated.ResultsAccording to available estimates, the size of the illicit trade varies between countries from 1% to about 40-50% of the market, 11.6% globally, 16.8% in low-income and 9.8% in high-income countries. The total lost revenue is about $40.5 billion a year. If this illicit trade were eliminated governments would gain at least $31.3 billion a year, and from 2030 onwards more than 164 000 premature deaths a year would be avoided, the vast majority in middle- and low-income countries.ConclusionsThe burden of deaths and lost revenue caused by the illicit cigarette trade falls disproportionately on low- and middle-income countries. Eliminating this trade would avoid millions of premature deaths, and recover billions of dollars for governments.