Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study
Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01156-3
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发表时间：
2016-05-07
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Scarborough, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Springmann, Marco;Mason-D'Croz, Daniel;Scarborough, Peter
背景气候变化最重要的后果之一可能是它对农业的影响。虽然许多研究都集中在粮食安全问题上，但很少有人致力于评估未来农业生产变化对更广泛的健康影响。在这项模型研究中，我们估计了2050年全球155个地区因农业因素引起的饮食和体重相关危险因素的变化导致的超额死亡率。方法在这项模型研究中，我们将一个详细的农业模型框架--国际农产品和贸易政策分析模型(IMPACT)--与水果和蔬菜消费、红肉消费以及冠心病、中风、癌症和其他原因死亡的体重变化的比较风险评估联系起来。我们计算了四条排放路径(一条高排放路径、两条中等排放路径和一条低排放路径)和三条社会经济路径(可持续发展、中间道路和更分散的发展)的组合下，可归因于气候相关体重和饮食变化的死亡人数的变化。每条路径包括六种不同的气候输入情景。模型预测，到2050年，气候变化将导致全球人均食物供应减少3.2%(SD 0.4%)，水果和蔬菜消费减少4.0%(0.7%)，红肉消费0.7%(0.1%)。这些变化将与全球529 000例与气候有关的死亡有关(95%可信区间314 000-736 000)，这意味着2010至2050年间由于饮食和体重相关风险因素的变化而可避免的死亡人数减少了28%(95%可信区间26-33)。与气候有关的死亡与水果和蔬菜消费量的减少有关的人数是与与气候有关的体重不足流行率上升有关的死亡人数的两倍，预计大多数与气候有关的死亡将发生在南亚和东亚。采用稳定气候的途径将使与气候有关的死亡人数减少29%-71%，这取决于它们的严谨性。解释气候变化对健康的影响可能是巨大的，而且超过了已经估计的其他与气候有关的健康影响。减缓气候变化可以防止许多与气候有关的死亡。加强旨在预防和治疗与饮食和体重有关的风险因素的公共卫生方案可能是适应气候变化的适当战略。
Background One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050.Methods For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs.Findings The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3.2% (SD 0.4%) in global food availability, 4.0% (0.7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0.7% (0.1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529 000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314 000-736 000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency.Interpretation The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy.