The Rise and Fall of Cryptocurrencies
The Rise and Fall of Cryptocurrencies
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发表时间：
2018
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通讯作者：
Amir Feder;Neil Gandal;T. Moore;Marie Vasek
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作者：
Amir Feder;Neil Gandal;T. Moore;Marie Vasek
自2009年比特币问世以来，人们对加密货币的兴趣飙升。这种兴趣的一个表现是新造硬币的爆炸性增长。本文研究了加密货币行业中硬币创造、竞争和破坏的动态。为了进行分析，我们开发了一种方法来确定价格和交易量的峰值，以及硬币被丢弃和随后“复活”的时间。我们研究了近五年来与1082枚硬币相关的交易活动。我们提出的证据表明，交易更频繁的硬币价格涨幅最大。它们被抛弃的可能性也要小得多，也就是说，平均交易量下降到之前峰值的1%以下。总体而言，我们发现，44%的公开交易硬币被遗弃，至少是暂时的。71%的废弃硬币后来被复活，剩下18%的硬币永久失效。然后，我们研究进入和退出与其他关键变量之间的关联，如价格、成交量和市值，以分析和提供支撑这个市场基本面的直觉。最后，我们回顾了2017年12月比特币泡沫的破裂。与2013年泡沫破灭不同的是，比特币下跌后，一些替代加密货币继续蓬勃发展。∗作者按字母顺序列出。
Since Bitcoin’s introduction in 2009, interest in cryptocurrencies has soared. One manifestation of this interest has been the explosion of newly created coins. This paper examines the dynamics of coin creation, competition and destruction in the cryptocurrency industry. In order to conduct the analysis, we develop a methodology to identify peaks in prices and trade volume, as well as when coins are abandoned and subsequently “resurrected”. We study trading activity associated with 1 082 coins over a nearly five-year period. We present evidence that the more frequently traded coins experience the biggest price rises. They are also much less likely to be abandoned, that is, to experience a drop in average trading volume to below 1% of a prior peak value. Overall, we find that 44% of publicly-traded coins are abandoned, at least temporarily. 71% of abandoned coins are later resurrected, leaving 18% of coins to fail permanently. We then examine the association between entry and exit and other key variables such as price, volume, and market capitalization in order to analyze and provide intuition underpinning the fundamentals in this market. We conclude by examining the bursting of the Bitcoin bubble in December 2017. Unlike the end of the 2013 bubble, some alternative cryptocurrencies continue to flourish after the fall of Bitcoin. ∗Authors listed in alphabetical order.