Oceanic Stochastic Parameterizations in a Seasonal Forecast System
Oceanic Stochastic Parameterizations in a Seasonal Forecast System
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-15-0245.1
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发表时间：
2015-06
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
M. Andrejczuk;F. Cooper;S. Juricke;T. Palmer;A. Weisheimer;L. Zanna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Andrejczuk;F. Cooper;S. Juricke;T. Palmer;A. Weisheimer;L. Zanna
摘要随机参数化法提供了一种在集合预报中表示模式不确定性的方法。本文研究了耦合模式海洋分量中现有的三个随机参数对季节时间尺度预报可靠性的影响。分析了这些方案对海洋平均状态和集合扩散的相对影响。在大多数地区，由耦合系统的大气强迫引起的海洋变率是集合传播的主要来源。对扩散和偏差的最大影响来自随机扰动的参数化趋势(SPPT)方案，该方案已被证明在大气中特别有效。受影响的关键区域是涡动活动区，即西部边界流和集合扩散加剧的南大洋。然而，与其在大气中的影响不同，海洋中的SPPT并没有导致季节性时间尺度上的预报误差显著减少。趁有好土地的时候。
AbstractStochastic parameterization provides a methodology for representing model uncertainty in ensemble forecasts. Here the impact on forecast reliability over seasonal time scales of three existing stochastic parameterizations in the ocean component of a coupled model is studied. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendency (SPPT) scheme, which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely, the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean where ensemble spread is increased. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error on seasonal time scales. While there are good ground...