The Long-Run Weight of Communism or the Weight of Long-Run History?
The Long-Run Weight of Communism or the Weight of Long-Run History?
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共产主义的长期影响还是长期历史的影响？
DOI：
10.1057/9780230361836_7
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Roland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Roland
如果有人在1912年对2012年俄罗斯、中欧和中国的前景做出预测，人们能想象出哪些看似合理的情景？令人惊讶的是，人们可以很好地想象出与我们今天观察到的非常接近的场景。预测通常不过是对过去的推断。俄罗斯在经济上实现了现代化，但在政治上仍然非常专制。中欧在经济上非常繁荣，与西欧很好地融合在一起，但正在经历民族主义的紧张局势。中国正从昏睡中醒来，向外部世界开放，寻找能够统一国家的现代机构，很可能是通过统一的军事指挥。一百年后的今天，人们在20世纪初观察到的一些趋势仍然可以观察到。值得注意的是，在这个世纪里，世界上这些不同的地区都经历了几十年的共产主义政权统治，这在1912年几乎是没有预料到的。然而，从长远来看，这几十年的共产主义似乎并没有对人们在世界这些地区观察到的长期趋势产生重大影响。从很长一段时间来看，共产主义的经历只不过是这些国家长期发展过程中的一个小插曲吗？后社会主义国家有许多特征，我们倾向于将其归因于最近的共产主义历史，奥弗在本卷（第9章）中的文章很好地分析了这些遗产。然而，如果我们仔细观察，这些特征可能更多地与共产主义之前的历史有关，而不是与共产主义经历本身有关。普京的独裁风格和对秘密机构的依赖是共产主义的特征，还是布尔什维克革命之前就已经与俄罗斯联系在一起了，比如奥克兰卡的作用和以前沙皇秘密的体现
If one were to have made predictions in 1912 about the outlook for Russia, Central Europe and China in 2012, what plausible scenarios could one imagine? Surprisingly, one can well imagine scenarios that are very close to what we are observing today. Prediction is often nothing less than an extrapolation from the past. Russia was modernizing economically but was remaining politically very autocratic. Central Europe was economically very prosperous and well integrated into Western Europe but was experiencing nationalistic tensions. China was waking up from its torpor and opening up to the outside world, searching for modern institutions capable of unifying it, in all likelihood via a unified military command. A hundred years later, some of the trends one could observe in the early twentieth century can still be observed today. The remarkable thing is that during this century, these different regions of the world have all undergone several decades of living under a communist regime, which had mostly not been predicted in 1912. Seen in the very long term, it would seem, however, that these decades of communism have not left a great influence on the long-run trends one observes in these regions of the world. Was the communist experience, in the very long term, nothing more than a minor historical blip in the long-run evolution of these countries? 1There are many traits in post-socialist countries that we tend to attribute to the recent communist past, and the piece by Ofer in this volume (Chapter 9) does a good job of analysing these legacies. However, if we take a closer look, many of these traits might have more to do with the pre-communist historical past than with the communist experience itself. Is Putin’s autocratic style and reliance on the secret service a communist trait or rather one that was already associated with Russia before the Bolshevik revolution, for example the role of the Okhranka and previous embodiments of the Tsar’s secret