Modelling and prediction of weekly incidence of influenza A specimens in England and Wales
Modelling and prediction of weekly incidence of influenza A specimens in England and Wales
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268808000307
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发表时间：
2008-12-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Hofoss, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Benth, J. Saltyte;Hofoss, D.
我们提出了一个相当简单的模型，该模型与英格兰和威尔士的每周人类流感发病率数据拟合良好。分析季节性变化时间序列的标准方法是将它们分解为不同的分量。在消除这些分量后获得的残差通常不显示时间依赖性并且是正态分布的。我们建议，结论不应该只根据残差得出，应该考虑残差平方的分析。我们表明，平方残差可以揭示剩余的季节性变化的存在下，这是没有表现出的残差分析，这种季节性变化的建模无疑提高了模型拟合。
We propose a rather simple model, which fits well the weekly human influenza incidence data from England and Wales. A standard way to analyse seasonally varying time-series is to decompose them into different components. The residuals obtained after eliminating these components often do not reveal time dependency and are normally distributed. We suggest that conclusions should not be drawn only on the basis of residuals and that one should consider the analysis of squared residuals. We show that squared residuals can reveal the presence of the remaining seasonal variation, which is not exhibited by the analysis of residuals, and that the modelling Of Such seasonal variations undoubtedly improves model fit.