Inflation Expectations in India: Learning From Household Tendency Surveys
Inflation Expectations in India: Learning From Household Tendency Surveys
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印度的通胀预期：从家庭倾向调查中学习
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Yongchen Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Abhiman Das;K. Lahiri;Yongchen Zhao
使用印度储备银行自2005年以来进行的一项大型家庭调查，我们估计了波动的通胀制度下总体通胀预期的动态。对量化反应的简单平均得出的是对官方通胀数据的有偏见的估计。因此，我们通过量化报道的方向性反应来估计预期。在量化方面，除了平衡统计外，我们还使用了分层有序概率模型。我们发现，来自定性预测的量化预期比定量预测的平均值更好地跟踪实际通货膨胀率，突出了定性趋势调查的过滤作用。我们还报告了家庭之间存在分歧的估计。拟议中的方法尤其适用于通胀往往较高且波动较大的新兴经济体。
Using a large household survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India since 2005, we estimate the dynamics of aggregate inflation expectations over a volatile inflation regime. A simple average of the quantitative responses produces biased estimates of the official inflation data. We therefore estimate expectations by quantifying the reported directional responses. For quantification, we use the Hierarchical Ordered Probit model, in addition to the balance statistic. We find that the quantified expectations from qualitative forecasts track the actual inflation rate better than the averages of the quantitative forecasts, highlighting the filtering role of qualitative tendency surveys. We also report estimates of disagreement among households. The proposed approach is particularly suitable in emerging economies where inflation tends to be high and volatile.
预期数据的效用：使用匹配的英国定性定量调查的公司级证据
影响因子：
7.9
作者：
Lui S
通讯作者：
Lui S