Stochastic population models: some concepts, definitions and results
Stochastic population models: some concepts, definitions and results
复制标题
DOI：
10.2307/3546848
复制
发表时间：
1998-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Saether, BE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Engen, S;Saether, BE
本文综述了随机模型在种群生物学中的应用。我们给出了人口和环境方差的精确定义，并提出了人口协方差的新概念。我们认为，在许多情况下，种群波动可以用扩散过程来近似。这个过程的许多有趣的性质都可以用格林函数来表示，包括种群生存力分析中非常感兴趣的预期灭绝时间。然后，我们将该方法应用于没有年龄结构的密度依赖模型，并总结了在没有密度调节的年龄结构模型中获得的一些结果。我们认为，这些结果在实际管理中可能非常有用，因为它们也使我们有可能估计我们估计的不确定性，例如小种群灭绝的概率。然而，它们的应用将取决于长期数据集的可用性，我们可以估计基本参数的数量级并评估其预测能力。
Here we review the use of stochastic models in population biology. We provide precise definitions of demographic and environmental variance, and present a new concept of demographic covariance. We suggest that population fluctuations in many cases can be approximated by a diffusion process. Many interesting properties of the process can be expressed by the Green function, including the expected time to extinction which is of great interest in population viability analysis. We then apply this approach on density-dependent models without age structure and give a summary of some results obtained for age-structured models without density regulation. We suggest that these results may be very useful in practical management because they also give us the possibility of estimating the uncertainties in our estimates of for instance the probability of extinction of small populations. Their application will, however, depend on the availability of long-term data sets, where we can estimate the order of magnitude of essential parameters and evaluate their predictive power.