Importance of endogenous feedback controlling the long-term abundance of tropical mosquito species
Importance of endogenous feedback controlling the long-term abundance of tropical mosquito species
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内源反馈控制热带蚊子物种长期丰度的重要性
DOI：
10.1007/s10144-008-0082-8
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
B. Brook
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo;C. Bradshaw;P. Whelan;B. Brook
蚊子是热带病的主要传播媒介，因此了解改变其种群动态的各个方面对于控制蚊子和保护人类健康至关重要。要使减少传播风险的控制战略的效率最大化，首先需要了解病媒的内在种群动态。我们对来自澳大利亚北部的六种热带蚊子的长期时间序列进行了一套密度依赖和密度独立模型的拟合。采用赤池信息准则（Akaike’s Information Criterion, AICc）、贝叶斯信息准则（Bayesian Information Criterion， BIC）和千花刀交叉验证（jack-knife cross-validation, C-V）评估模型的证据强度。在所有的模型选择方法中，密度依赖性占模型权重的99%以上，其中Gompertz-logistic （Cushing模型）是所有蚊种最受支持的模型（即使在低密度下也表现出负密度反馈）。第二丰富的伊蚊（一种盐水繁殖动物）在其密度依赖性响应中不存在空间异质性，但其余5种在11个研究地点具有不同的内在生长速率。盐碱化物种的种群密度仅在枯水期后期至初湿季较高，此时湿地主要为盐碱化沼泽，而淡水物种的种群密度在枯水期中期和中干季最高。这些发现表明蚊子种群的密度依赖性非常强，但也表明环境驱动因素，如降雨和潮汐，在改变季节性密度方面很重要。忽视对热带蚊子种群中强烈的密度反馈的考虑显然会导致控制效果降低。
Mosquitoes are a major vector for tropical diseases, so understanding aspects that modify their population dynamics is vital for their control and protecting human health. Maximising the efficiency of control strategies for reducing transmission risk requires as a first step the understanding of the intrinsic population dynamics of vectors. We fitted a set of density-dependent and density-independent models to the long-term time series of six tropical mosquito species from northern Australia. The models’ strength of evidence was assessed using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and jack-knifed cross-validation (C-V). Density dependence accounted for more than 99% of the model weight in all model-selection methods, with the Gompertz-logistic (Cushing model) being the best-supported model for all mosquito species (negative density feedback expressed even at low densities). The second-most abundant species,Aedes vigilax(a saline breeder), showed no spatial heterogeneity in its density-dependent response, but the remaining five species had different intrinsic growth rates across 11 study sites. Population densities of saline species were high only during the late dry to early wet season following the highest tides of the month or early flood rains when swamps were mostly saline, whereas those of freshwater species were highest during the mid-wet and mid-dry seasons. These findings demonstrate remarkably strong density dependence in mosquito populations, but also suggest that environmental drivers, such as rainfall and tides, are important in modifying seasonal densities. Neglecting to account for strong density feedback in tropical mosquito populations will clearly result in less effective control.