Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning
Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.054
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发表时间：
2014-04
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Jiahai Yuan;Yan Xu;J. Kang;Xingping Zhang;Zheng Hu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiahai Yuan;Yan Xu;J. Kang;Xingping Zhang;Zheng Hu
通过引入传统电厂的外部成本和具有非线性函数的能效电厂的推广成本，对综合资源战略规划模型进行了扩展。通过对中国2011年至2021年电力规划的案例研究，验证了该模型的有效性。通过编写场景来比较不同策略下的电力规划路径。结果表明：1)风电将随着技术学习而变得具有竞争力，但在燃煤发电的外部成本不内部化的情况下，风电的装机是不可取的；2)推广成本的存在将阻碍EPPS(能效电厂)的部署，纯市场机制不足以提供社会所希望的EPPS；3)对燃煤发电征收平均0.15-0.20元/千瓦时的累进排污税可以弥补市场扭曲，显著促进风电的发展；4)当核电外部成本不超过0.187元/千瓦时，或内部成本的87%时，核电将稳定增长。该模型可作为国家电力规划和政策制定过程中的决策支持工具。
In this paper we expand the IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) model by including the external cost of TPPs (traditional power plants) and popularization cost of EPPs (efficiency power plants) with nonlinear functions. Case studies for power planning in China during 2011–2021 are conducted to show the efficacy of the model. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning under different policies. Results show that: 1) wind power will become competitive with technical learning, but its installation is undesirable when the external cost of coal power is not internalized; 2) the existence of popularization cost will hinder EPPs' (efficiency power plants) deployment and pure market mechanism is not enough to deliver EPPs at socially desirable scale; 3) imposition of progressive emission tax on coal power at an average of 0.15–0.20 RMB/KWh can remedy the market distortion and promote the development of wind power by a significant margin; 4) nuclear power will grow stably when its external cost is set no more than 0.187 RMB per KWh, or 87% of its internal cost. The proposed model can serve as a useful tool for decision support in the process of power planning and policy formulation for national government.