Impacts of Operational Variability and Uncertainty on Distributed Generation Investment Planning: A Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis
Impacts of Operational Variability and Uncertainty on Distributed Generation Investment Planning: A Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis
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DOI：
10.1109/tste.2016.2624506
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发表时间：
2017-04
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
S. Santos;D. Fitiwi;A. W. Bizuayehu;M. Shafie‐khah;Miguel Asensio;J. Contreras;C. Cabrita;J. Catalão
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文献类型：
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作者：
S. Santos;D. Fitiwi;A. W. Bizuayehu;M. Shafie‐khah;Miguel Asensio;J. Contreras;C. Cabrita;J. Catalão
本文提出了一种全面的敏感性分析方法，以识别对分布式发电（DG）投资决策过程有显着影响的不确定参数，并量化其影响程度。为了进行分析，制定一个新的多阶段和多场景优化问题的DG投资规划模型。此外，为了确保易处理性和利用精确解方法，整个问题保持为混合整数线性规划优化。一个真实的配电网络系统被用来进行分析。分析的结果表明，不确定性以及所考虑的参数的操作可变性有意义的DG的投资决策的影响。影响的程度因参数而异。但是，一般来说，忽略或不充分考虑模型参数的不确定性和可变性会产生可量化的成本。因此，本文所作的分析可以是非常有用的，以确定最相关的模型参数，需要特别注意的规划实践。
This paper presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to identify the uncertain parameters which significantly influence the decision-making process in distributed generation (DG) investments and quantify their degree of influence. To perform the analysis, a DG investment planning model is formulated as a novel multistage and multiscenario optimization problem. Moreover, to ensure tractability and make use of exact solution methods, the entire problem is kept as a mixed-integer linear programming optimization. A real-world distribution network system is used to carry out the analysis. The results of the analysis generally show that uncertainty as well as operational variability of the considered parameters have meaningful impacts on investment decisions of DG. The degree of influence varies from one parameter to another. But, in general, ignoring or inadequately considering uncertainty and variability in model parameters has a quantifiable cost. Hence, the analysis made in this paper can be very useful to identify the most relevant model parameters that need special attention in planning practices.